demos
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Post by demos on Mar 28, 2024 15:45:12 GMT
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thor
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Post by thor on Mar 28, 2024 17:19:04 GMT
You understand that your article makes clear that none of what was in it was formally agreed to......right? Also, what kind of excrement is this?: "The first was that Ukraine was free to pursue European Union membership. The second was that Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO. The third was that there would be limits placed on Ukraine militarily, and the fourth regarded agreements on culture and territory." |
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Post by demos on Mar 28, 2024 18:00:24 GMT
You understand that your article makes clear that none of what was in it was formally agreed to......right? Yeah, that's generally what draft means. And that draft and those discussions were talked about early on in this thread (starting on about p 14). As also discussed earlier in this thread I believe, the first three are the Austria model. The last would be about territory held by Russia, i.e., Crimea and Donbas, as well as language, etc.
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thor
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Post by thor on Mar 28, 2024 18:09:42 GMT
You understand that your article makes clear that none of what was in it was formally agreed to......right? Yeah, that's generally what draft means. And that draft and those discussions were talked about early on in this thread (starting on about p 14). As also discussed earlier in this thread I believe, the first three are the Austria model. The last would be about territory held by Russia, i.e., Crimea and Donbas, as well as language, etc.
So Russia's position was that Ukraine has to give up their sovereignty. Ukraine said 'No.', as is their right. So Russia attacked them. That about cover it? |
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Post by demos on Mar 28, 2024 18:26:48 GMT
So Russia's position was that Ukraine has to give up their sovereignty. Ukraine said 'No.', as is their right. So Russia attacked them. That about cover it?Just to be clear, these were were discussions after Russia's operations in February 2022. No talks were held prior to that (except the Minsk agreements which were ceasefire agreements stemming from the initial invasion in 2014), though some of these points were in Russian proposals in December 2021 and have been issues repeatedly brought up by Russia over a long period of time.
A key point was Russia withdrawing to its positions prior to February 23, 2022 (also discussed in this thread). This was Russia's extent of territorial control in April 2022:
And all of this was something that was being seriously considered by Ukraine until about April/May 2022.
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thor
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Post by thor on Mar 28, 2024 22:27:28 GMT
So Russia's position was that Ukraine has to give up their sovereignty. Ukraine said 'No.', as is their right. So Russia attacked them. That about cover it?Just to be clear, these were were discussions after Russia's operations in February 2022. No talks were held prior to that (except the Minsk agreements which were ceasefire agreements stemming from the initial invasion in 2014), though some of these points were in Russian proposals in December 2021 and have been issues repeatedly brought up by Russia over a long period of time.
A key point was Russia withdrawing to its positions prior to February 23, 2022 (also discussed in this thread). This was Russia's extent of territorial control in April 2022:
And all of this was something that was being seriously considered by Ukraine until about April/May 2022.
Seriously considered =/= Agreeing. So Russia attacked. Correct? |
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Post by demos on Mar 29, 2024 14:24:40 GMT
Seriously considered =/= Agreeing. So Russia attacked. Correct? Russia had already attacked before these negotiations took place.
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thor
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Post by thor on Mar 29, 2024 18:35:12 GMT
Seriously considered =/= Agreeing. So Russia attacked. Correct? Russia had already attacked before these negotiations took place.
Yep. And then they went for the conquest. |
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Post by demos on Apr 1, 2024 18:26:34 GMT
Yep. And then they went for the conquest. Not really sure what point you're trying to make here. They had already begun their operations before these negotiations took place, and those continued while the negotiations were going on.
So, are you trying to say their original goal wasn't conquest and only became that after the negotiations failed?
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thor
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Post by thor on Apr 1, 2024 18:33:08 GMT
Yep. And then they went for the conquest. Not really sure what point you're trying to make here. They had already begun their operations before these negotiations took place, and those continued while the negotiations were going on.
So, are you trying to say their original goal wasn't conquest and only became that after the negotiations failed?
Nope. Quite the opposite, in reality. If you had wisdom to go with the knowledge you have acquired, you be able to properly analyze what the Russian objective was - conquest. How far is Kyiv from the Perekop Isthmus and the Donbas? |
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Post by demos on Apr 1, 2024 18:49:10 GMT
Nope. Quite the opposite, in reality. If you had wisdom to go with the knowledge you have acquired, you be able to properly analyze what the Russian objective was - conquest. How far is Kyiv from the Perekop Isthmus and the Donbas?
And in answer to your question, depends on how you get there, but if you're on the road, about 575 miles and 442 miles respectively.
You have a point you want to make or is this more pretend insight that will be followed by endless questions.
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thor
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Post by thor on Apr 1, 2024 19:30:46 GMT
Nope. Quite the opposite, in reality. If you had wisdom to go with the knowledge you have acquired, you be able to properly analyze what the Russian objective was - conquest. How far is Kyiv from the Perekop Isthmus and the Donbas?
And in answer to your question, depends on how you get there, but if you're on the road, about 575 miles and 442 miles respectively.
You have a point you want to make or is this more pretend insight that will be followed by endless questions.
Demos, Since those places are so far from Kyiv, why launch a direct assault on Kyiv? Again, the Russian objective was, and is, obvious. |
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Post by demos on Apr 1, 2024 19:41:08 GMT
Demos, Since those places are so far from Kyiv, why launch a direct assault on Kyiv? Again, the Russian objective was, and is, obvious. I've answered that question before ( here).
The aim, imo, was to collapse the Ukrainian government; the goal being to replace it with a pro-Russian government. There were hints of that early on in this thread too ( here).
Russia had withdrawn its troops from Northern Ukraine by April 2022 following Ukrainian counteroffensives and began focusing more on Eastern and Southern Ukraine and creating a land bridge between Donbas and Crimea (which it has successfully and brutally accomplished btw). |
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Post by thor on Apr 1, 2024 19:54:51 GMT
Demos, Since those places are so far from Kyiv, why launch a direct assault on Kyiv? Again, the Russian objective was, and is, obvious. I've answered that question before ( here).
The aim, imo, was to collapse the Ukrainian government; the goal being to replace it with a pro-Russian government. There were hints of that early on in this thread too ( here).
Russia had withdrawn its troops from Northern Ukraine by April 2022 following Ukrainian counteroffensives and began focusing more on Eastern and Southern Ukraine and creating a land bridge between Donbas and Crimea (which it has successfully and brutally accomplished btw). In other words, conquest. |
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Post by demos on Apr 1, 2024 20:10:25 GMT
In other words, conquest. If that's what you want to call getting rid of the current government and replacing it with a "friendly" regime that would do what Russia wanted.
I don't think Russia, specifically Putin, wanted/wants to control and govern Ukraine (outside of Donbas and Crimea - both of which have more economic and strategic value to Russia). He'd be happier with a Belarus type situation; would probably accept some form of illiberal democracy.
That ship has pretty much sailed though (it had already sailed years before but that's another discussion). If the current stalemate lasts, he - and Ukraine - will probably have to settle on that land bridge. Maybe no Ukrainian admittance to Nato (because I don't think the appetite for that has changed within Nato) - an armed neutrality basically.
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Post by thor on Apr 1, 2024 20:53:21 GMT
In other words, conquest. If that's what you want to call getting rid of the current government and replacing it with a "friendly" regime that would do what Russia wanted.
I don't think Russia, specifically Putin, wanted/wants to control and govern Ukraine (outside of Donbas and Crimea - both of which have more economic and strategic value to Russia). He'd be happier with a Belarus type situation; would probably accept some form of illiberal democracy.
That ship has pretty much sailed though (it had already sailed years before but that's another discussion). If the current stalemate lasts, he - and Ukraine - will probably have to settle on that land bridge. Maybe no Ukrainian admittance to Nato (because I don't think the appetite for that has changed within Nato) - an armed neutrality basically.
Yes. Using force to impose a government that was not asked for, accompanied by the forced annexation of territory. Do you have a better word? Do you really believe that is all that the Russians wanted? If you have to quibble over words, you have already lost. |
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Post by demos on Apr 1, 2024 21:27:28 GMT
Yes. Using force to impose a government that was not asked for, accompanied by the forced annexation of territory. Generally conquest suggests a complete takeover. Regime change might be a better term. But regardless of what term, it helps to define what's meant by it so we're on the same page.
It's what they've wanted for a while. Russian designs on - desires for - Crimea since the Cold War haven't exactly been a secret, nor has wanting Russian friendly governments.
They have actively worked to get Russian friendly Ukrainian governments in office, including openly supporting certain candidates (for example, in 2004, they sent political consultants to help Yanukovich). And that's a pattern you can see in Russia's relations with other former Soviet republics: Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Central Asian Republics, and Georgia.
What changed in Ukraine was his strategy, because he wasn't winning at the ballot box any more, since Putin's actions and interference have generally enhanced Ukrainian nationalism and undermined Russia's own interests.
And when this is over, he's going to have an even more nationalistic Ukraine on Russia's border (which he might write off, especially if they continue to build up their own defense industry).
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thor
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Post by thor on Apr 1, 2024 22:13:59 GMT
Yes. Using force to impose a government that was not asked for, accompanied by the forced annexation of territory. Generally conquest suggests a complete takeover. Regime change might be a better term. But regardless of what term, it helps to define what's meant by it so we're on the same page.
It's what they've wanted for a while. Russian designs on - desires for - Crimea since the Cold War haven't exactly been a secret, nor has wanting Russian friendly governments.
They have actively worked to get Russian friendly Ukrainian governments in office, including openly supporting certain candidates (for example, in 2004, they sent political consultants to help Yanukovich). And that's a pattern you can see in Russia's relations with other former Soviet republics: Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Central Asian Republics, and Georgia.
What changed in Ukraine was his strategy, because he wasn't winning at the ballot box any more, since Putin's actions and interference have generally enhanced Ukrainian nationalism and undermined Russia's own interests.
And when this is over, he's going to have an even more nationalistic Ukraine on Russia's border (which he might write off, especially if they continue to build up their own defense industry).
So you concede that the Russian endgame was conquest. |
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Post by demos on Apr 2, 2024 17:37:17 GMT
So you concede that the Russian endgame was conquest. If we're talking about changing out the regime, then sure.
I don't think Russia/Putin wanted to take over all of Ukraine and govern it themselves.
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Post by demos on Apr 2, 2024 17:58:26 GMT
If anyone is interested this book is available online:
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