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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Aug 22, 2022 15:44:18 GMT

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Post by demos on Aug 22, 2022 15:44:18 GMT

A grim winter will test Europe's support for Ukraine like never before

Six months since Russia invaded Ukraine, the West's response to the crisis has remained strong and largely united -- to the surprise of many. Despite years of fractured relations during the era of former US president Donald Trump and the Covid-19 pandemic, the trans-Atlantic alliance has managed to pull together and reach agreements on financial support and the donation of weapons to Kyiv, agreements to stop using Russian energy as well as sanctions designed to hit President Vladimir Putin and his cronies. However, as the crisis reaches its half-year anniversary, officials across Europe are worried that the consensus could fall apart as the continent enters a bleak winter of rising food prices, limited energy to heat homes and the real possibility of recession...

Relevant to the analysis above:

Energy bills: Customers can't carry cost of Ukraine war, boss says

UK households cannot carry the cost of the Ukraine war which is set to push energy bills even higher, the boss of Octopus Energy has said. Greg Jackson was speaking as UK households brace for average energy bills to reach a predicted £3,554 a year in October and £4,650 in January. He called for the government to double its financial support or freeze the amount suppliers can charge for energy. No 10 previously said there would be no new policy before a new PM is in place...

And from Financial Times: Russia rules out peace deal to end Ukraine war

IMO, there will eventually be a negotiated settlement to this conflict. It's just going to come down to exhaustion on all sides: militarily and economically [Ukraine's own economic costs are significant].

demos Legend Posts: 9,206	Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Aug 22, 2022 20:11:09 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by demos on Aug 22, 2022 20:11:09 GMT Good

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 2, 2022 16:24:17 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 2, 2022 16:24:17 GMT

The World Putin Wants

<excerpt> Despite calls by some for a negotiated settlement that would involve Ukrainian territorial concessions, Putin seems uninterested in a compromise that would leave Ukraine as a sovereign, independent state—whatever its borders. According to multiple former senior U.S. officials we spoke with, in April 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement: Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries. But as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated in a July interview with his country’s state media, this compromise is no longer an option. Even giving Russia all of the Donbas is not enough. “Now the geography is different,” Lavrov asserted, in describing Russia’s short-term military aims. “It’s also Kherson and the Zaporizhzhya regions and a number of other territories.” The goal is not negotiation, but Ukrainian capitulation. </excerpt>

Those talks came to an end after Boris Johnson's visit to Ukraine back in April (Source). That tracks with this thread. Throughout March and early April, negotiations were pretty serious and earnest. Then late April, Johnson ruled out a negotiated peace, as did we (see page 19, posts 376 and 379).

It's Syria all over again (i.e., we obstructed talks between Assad and the SDF).

Related: Why did the West stop a peace deal in Ukraine?

Last Edit: Sept 2, 2022 16:24:48 GMT by demos

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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 7, 2022 17:21:52 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 7, 2022 17:21:52 GMT

Putin threatens to limit Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports

Russian President Vladimir Putin Wednesday accused EU countries of diverting all Black Sea grain to themselves, and called to limit the export of grain from Ukraine. Addressing the plenary assembly of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Russia, Putin accused Western countries of taking the bulk of Ukraine's grain being exported via the Black Sea, and added that he will raise this issue with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who mediated the deal along with the U.N. "We should probably think about limiting the destinations for grain exports, and I'm going to discuss that with Mr. Erdoğan, president of Turkey, because it was he and I who came up with this plan," he added...

Some context for those comments: it's about support and Russian influence in Africa.

EU, U.S. step up Russian aluminium, nickel imports since Ukraine war

The European Union and United States have ramped up buying key industrial metals from Russia, data showed, despite logistical problems spurred by the war in Ukraine and tough talk about starving Moscow of foreign exchange revenue. The metal shipments highlight the West's difficulty in pressuring Russia's economy, which has performed better than expected and seen its rouble currency surge as buoyant oil revenue has helped offset the impact of sanctions...

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 14, 2022 18:27:01 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 14, 2022 18:27:01 GMT

Russia Denies Putin Rejected Ukraine Peace Deal Struck by Aide

Sources close to the Russian leadership have claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a provisional peace deal with Kyiv struck by his chief envoy to Ukraine, as reported by Reuters. The sources said a deal struck by Dmitry Kozak just after the Russian invasion on February 24 would have satisfied Moscow's demand that Ukraine stayed out of NATO. However, Putin supposedly decided to press ahead with the invasion... But sources told Reuters that the deal struck by Kozak failed to satisfy the Russian president's ambitions to annex more Ukrainian territory. As a consequence, the deal was dropped...

Kremlin says Ukraine's NATO ambitions remain a threat to Russia

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Ukraine's ongoing ambitions to join the Western NATO military alliance presented a threat to Russia's security and highlighted the necessity for Russia to conduct what it calls a "special military operation" in Ukraine. Moscow was responding to the publication of a draft set of security guarantees by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office on Tuesday that outlined Ukraine's "aspiration to join NATO and benefit from its mutual defence arrangements"...

Russia decries Ukraine's calls for NATO-like security coalition as 'prologue' to WWIII

Russia has condemned Kyiv’s push for a NATO-like international security coalition as a "prologue" to World War III as it faces strategic losses amid its war in Ukraine. "The Kyiv camarilla has given birth to a project of 'security guarantees', which are essentially a prologue to a third world war," Russia’s Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said according to Russia state-owned media outlet Tass...

Xi and Putin to discuss Ukraine war at meeting

China's leader Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin will discuss the war in Ukraine and other "international and regional topics" at their meeting later this week, the Kremlin says. The two will meet in Uzbekistan at a summit that will show an "alternative" to the Western world, the Kremlin said. Mr Xi is making his first trip overseas since the start of the pandemic...

See also: Xi Unlikely to Throw Putin a Lifeline as Ukraine Struggles Mount

China doesn't really have anything to gain by helping Russia in this conflict, so it will be interesting to see how this meeting goes. Not sure them not providing help would influence Putin's decision making much though.

Ostracized by the West, Russia Finds a Partner in Saudi Arabia

As Russia massed troops on its border with Ukraine and invaded the country at the start of the year, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Company quietly invested more than $600 million in Russia’s three dominant energy companies. Then, over the summer, as the United States, Canada and several European countries cut oil imports from Russia, Saudi Arabia doubled the amount of fuel oil it was buying from Russia for its power plants, freeing up its own crude for export. And, this month, Russia and Saudi Arabia steered the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allied producers to reduce output targets in an effort to prop up global oil prices, which were falling, a decision that should increase the oil profits of both nations...

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 15, 2022 18:35:54 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 15, 2022 18:35:54 GMT

Putin defers to China’s Ukraine “concerns” at face-to-face with Xi

Reeling from a series of defeats in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a rare admission that there might be some international concerns about his country’s invasion of a neighboring state. He was deferring not, of course, to Western concerns but to those that might be harbored by his ally China, whose support he needs to refute claims that Russia is internationally isolated...

Putin-Xi talks: Russian leader reveals China's 'concern' over Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has acknowledged China's "concern" over Ukraine, in his first face-to-face talks with President Xi Jinping since the Russian invasion. But speaking in Uzbekistan, Mr Putin also thanked China for its "balanced position" - and said US "attempts to create a unipolar world" would fail. Mr Xi said China was willing to work together with Russia as "great powers". China hasn't endorsed Russia's invasion but has grown trade and other ties with Moscow since it was launched...

Putin concedes China has ‘questions and concerns’ over Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday praised China’s “balanced position” on the Ukraine war, though he conceded Beijing had “questions and concerns” over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of their diverging views over the protracted military assault. Putin made the comments when meeting Chinese leader Xi Jinping in person for the first time since the invasion at a regional summit in Uzbekistan, days after Russia suffered a series of major military setbacks in Ukraine. Russian troops are retreating en mass, having lost more territory in a week than they captured in five months...

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 16, 2022 15:14:10 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 16, 2022 15:14:10 GMT

India’s Modi assails Putin over Ukraine war

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that now is not the time to go to war, speaking publicly about the seven-month war in Ukraine. directly attacked the Kremlin Prime Minister... Modi told Putin during a video conference in Uzbekistan’s ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand, “I know that today is not the age of war. I spoke about this on the phone”...

Interesting. Didn't really expect any pushback from India. Makes we wonder what's been said behind the scenes and if any pressure is being placed on Russia to find an end to this conflict.

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 20, 2022 16:56:13 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 20, 2022 16:56:13 GMT

Russia triggers plan to formally annex occupied Ukrainian regions

Russian-installed leaders in occupied areas of four Ukrainian regions set out plans for referendums on joining Russia this week, a step an ally of President Vladimir Putin said would alter the geopolitical landscape forever. Russian officials portrayed the move as one that would give Moscow a claim to territory that it could defend with any means possible. Ukraine dismissed it as a stunt by Russia to try to reclaim the initiative after crushing losses on the battlefield...

Russia makes moves to annex separatist regions in Ukraine

Russia today made moves toward annexing parts of Ukraine it controls, as the leaders of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics said they would hold a four-day referendum to formally join the Russian Federation, starting as soon as Friday. The announcement of the snap votes was followed by near-identical announcements in the partially Russian-occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine...

Ukraine war: Separatist leaders in four regions plan votes to join Russia

Separatist leaders in four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine have announced plans to begin voting to become integral parts of Russia. The Kremlin's efforts to swallow up the four regions could see Moscow escalate the war against Ukrainian forces, who are currently making gains in the battle to take back territory. The referendums in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will start on Friday and last until Tuesday...

These regions have wanted autonomy or greater independence for a long time, regardless of whether these are sham referenda or not, and there's no way they're getting greater autonomy within Ukraine after this conflict ends (assuming - for the moment - that Ukraine recaptures this territory).

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 20, 2022 19:24:36 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 20, 2022 19:24:36 GMT

Turkish president Erdogan says Putin wants to end war ‘as soon as possible’

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he believes Vladimir Putin wants to end the war in Ukraine, following recent talks he had with the Russian president. He said his impression from Putin was that he wanted to end the conflict “as soon as possible” after comprehensive discussions at a summit in Uzbekistan last week... In an interview with US broadcaster PBS, Erdogan said the situation for Russia is “quite problematic”... When asked by PBS if Moscow should be allowed to keep hold of the territory it had gained control of since the beginning of the war, Erdogan said: “No, and undoubtedly no”...

Hmmm... the referendums would suggest he's trying to create a scenario where he gets to keep those territories.

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 21, 2022 16:27:07 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 21, 2022 16:27:07 GMT

So, this is significant...

Putin orders partial military call-up, risking protests

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilization of reservists Wednesday, taking a risky and deeply unpopular step that follows humiliating setbacks for his troops nearly seven months after invading Ukraine. The first such call-up in Russia since World War II is sure to further fuel tensions with the Western backers of Ukraine, who derided it as an act of weakness and desperation. The move also sent some Russians scrambling to buy plane tickets out of the country and reportedly sparked some demonstrations...

Putin orders partial mobilisation after facing setbacks

Russian President Vladimir Putin is calling up thousands of extra troops to fight in Ukraine after suffering setbacks on the battlefield. Mr Putin said the partial mobilisation was necessary to ensure Russian territorial integrity. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said it showed Mr Putin wanted to drown Ukraine in blood - including that of his own soldiers. The announcement applies to 300,000 military reservists...

People have been waiting for this shoe to drop since May.

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 21, 2022 20:07:10 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 21, 2022 20:07:10 GMT

Baltic nations say they will refuse refuge to Russians fleeing mobilisation

European Union members Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russia, will not offer refuge to any Russians fleeing Moscow's mobilisation of troops, their ministers said on Wednesday. One-way flights out of Russia were rocketing in price and selling out fast as President Vladimir Putin ordered the immediate call-up of 300,000 reservists. "A refusal to fulfil one's civic duty in Russia or a desire to do so does not constitute sufficient grounds for being granted asylum in another country," Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said in email to Reuters...

That is some serious spitefulness.

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 22, 2022 17:56:45 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 22, 2022 17:56:45 GMT

Lavrov walks out of U.N. Security Council meeting as the West confronts Russia over atrocities in Ukraine

Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on every United Nations General Assembly member to “send a clear message” to Russia that it must stop its nuclear threats in the war in Ukraine... Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, meanwhile, repeated his country’s frequent claims that Kyiv has long oppressed Russian speakers in Ukraine’s east — one of various explanations Moscow has offered for the invasion...

And not just the West: End conflict in Ukraine, return to negotiating table (India)

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan Warn Citizens Of Repercussions For Joining Russian Forces In Ukraine

Kyrgyz and Uzbek authorities have warned citizens working as migrant laborers in Russia of serious repercussions for joining the Russian military in its ongoing war in Ukraine after Moscow announced a partial mobilization. The Kyrgyz Embassy in Moscow issued a statement on September 21, hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin's decree on mobilization, saying that any form of participation in military activities on the territory of foreign countries is considered mercenary activity and will be punished by up to 10 years in prison and the confiscation of all property...

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 23, 2022 19:54:13 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 23, 2022 19:54:13 GMT

Ukraine 'referendums': Soldiers go door-to-door for votes in polls

Ukrainians have reported armed soldiers going door-to-door in occupied parts of the country to collect votes for self-styled "referendums" on joining Russia. "You have to answer verbally and the soldier marks the answer on the sheet and keeps it," one woman in Enerhodar told the BBC. In southern Kherson, Russian guardsmen stood with a ballot box in the middle of the city to collect people's votes...

Armed Russian Proxies in Ukraine Pressure Locals to Vote on Annexation – Official

Russian proxies in occupied Ukrainian territories are knocking on residents’ doors and pressuring them to vote to formally join Russia, a Ukrainian official said Friday. Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, along with the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, are staging referendums from Sept. 23-27 that will decide whether they will be annexed by Russia...

And mobilization exemptions:

Russia reveals exemptions as men flee call-up

Russia announces exemptions from Ukraine war mobilisation

Mercy for All
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 23, 2022 20:21:48 GMT

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Post by Mercy for All on Sept 23, 2022 20:21:48 GMT

Sept 23, 2022 19:54:13 GMT demos said:

Ukraine 'referendums': Soldiers go door-to-door for votes in polls

Ukrainians have reported armed soldiers going door-to-door in occupied parts of the country to collect votes for self-styled "referendums" on joining Russia. "You have to answer verbally and the soldier marks the answer on the sheet and keeps it," one woman in Enerhodar told the BBC. In southern Kherson, Russian guardsmen stood with a ballot box in the middle of the city to collect people's votes...

Armed Russian Proxies in Ukraine Pressure Locals to Vote on Annexation – Official

Russian proxies in occupied Ukrainian territories are knocking on residents’ doors and pressuring them to vote to formally join Russia, a Ukrainian official said Friday. Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, along with the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics, are staging referendums from Sept. 23-27 that will decide whether they will be annexed by Russia...

And mobilization exemptions:

Russia reveals exemptions as men flee call-up

Russia announces exemptions from Ukraine war mobilisation

Sounds legit.

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 27, 2022 19:16:32 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 27, 2022 19:16:32 GMT

Over 96% said to favour joining Russia in first vote results from occupied Ukraine regions

First partial voting results from four Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine showed majorities of more than 96% in favour of becoming part of Russia after so-called referendums that Kyiv and the West have denounced as a sham. Hastily arranged votes had taken place over five days in the four areas - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - that make up about 15% of Ukrainian territory...

Putin to declare annexation of Ukraine regions within days, U.K. says

Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to declare Russia’s annexation of four partially occupied regions in eastern Ukraine shortly after staged referendums organized by Kremlin proxies are concluded, the British Defense Ministry said Tuesday. There is “a realistic possibility” that Putin will use an address to the Russian parliament, which Russian state media have reported will take place on Friday, to formally announce his intention to absorb the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, despite international condemnation, the Defense Ministry said in its daily intelligence report on the Ukraine war...

Ukrainians involved in ‘referendums’ face prison terms, says Kyiv

Ukraine’s authorities have said citizens helping to organise Russia’s so-called “referendums”, which concluded on Tuesday in the occupied territories, will face up to five years in prison for their role in orchestrating them. “We have lists of names of people who have been involved in some way,” a presidential adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said in an interview with the Swiss newspaper Blick, adding that Ukrainians who were forced to vote would not be punished...

MojoJojo
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 27, 2022 19:19:07 GMT

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Post by MojoJojo on Sept 27, 2022 19:19:07 GMT

Rumour is the 29th will be Annexation Day.

This date was set before the counts were even started.

This leaves Ukraine at war with Russian territory and therefore full mobilization is legal in Russia. Hope it's been worth it Putin.

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limey²
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 27, 2022 20:15:28 GMT via mobile

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Post by limey² on Sept 27, 2022 20:15:28 GMT

Sept 27, 2022 19:19:07 GMT MojoJojo said:

Rumour is the 29th will be Annexation Day.

This date was set before the counts were even started.

This leaves Ukraine at war with Russian territory and therefore full mobilization is legal in Russia. Hope it's been worth it Putin.

It's impossible to imagine a remotely plausible positive outcome for Russia at the moment.

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 29, 2022 15:46:44 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 29, 2022 15:46:44 GMT

Kremlin gets ready to annex 4 regions of Ukraine on Friday

Russia on Friday will formally annex parts of Ukraine where separation “referendums” received approval, the Kremlin’s spokesman said, confirming the expectations of Ukrainian and Western officials who have denounced the Moscow-managed votes as illegal, forced and rigged. Four regions of Ukraine — Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — will be folded into Russia during a Kremlin ceremony attended by President Vladimir Putin, spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday...

Also: How will Russian annexation change the war in Ukraine?

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Sept 30, 2022 17:06:59 GMT

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Post by demos on Sept 30, 2022 17:06:59 GMT

Annexations are official, so now...

Putin claims Russia ready for talks, while “annexed” areas not to be discussed

Russia is ready for peace negotiations with Ukraine but their agenda must not include the “accession” to Russia of the previously captured territories. This was stated by President Vladimir Putin of the Russian Federation during his Friday speech during the ceremony in the Kremlin where the "agreements" were signed on the so-called "inclusion" into Russia of the territories of Ukraine captured by Russian troops, an Ukrinform correspondent reports...

Ukraine ready for negotiations with Russia, but not with Putin Zelenskyy

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia, but only with another president of the Russian Federation, not with Vladimir Putin...

Ukraine formally applies for fast-track NATO membership

Ukraine on Friday formally requested an “accelerated accession” to join NATO, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced — a response to Russia formally annexing four Ukrainian regions... The move was intended to draw attention away from Vladimir Putin’s elaborately staged speech earlier in the day, in which he announced the annexations to an audience seated under gilded chandeliers...

demos
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Russia-Ukraine Negotiations Oct 3, 2022 16:34:16 GMT

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Post by demos on Oct 3, 2022 16:34:16 GMT

Kremlin unclear on which parts of Ukraine it has ‘annexed’

The Kremlin is still determining which areas of occupied Ukraine it has “annexed”, Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson has said, suggesting Russia does not know where its self-declared international borders are. The surprising admission came in a phone call with journalists, during which Dmitry Peskov was peppered with requests to clarify to which Ukrainian territory Putin had laid claim at a pomp-filled Kremlin ceremony last week. Putin has vowed to protect Russia’s newly claimed territories using “all means at its disposal”, indicating a potential nuclear strike. The lack of a clear red line may undermine his attempts at using nuclear deterrence to halt Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive and western support for Kyiv...

Situation's fluid, as they say.

And an interesting thread on this: