Odysseus
Legend
Trump = Disaster
Posts: 41,115
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Post by Odysseus on Jul 10, 2020 10:43:59 GMT
And then there is the issue of communicability.
Evidence to date seems to indicate that Covid-19 is more communicable than seasonal flu. This makes a big difference when it comes to trying to control a pandemic:
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 10, 2020 10:57:53 GMT
As time moves forward, the CFR reduces and approaches the IFR. Both because more tests are administered for a novel virus, and then because antibody tests can check backwards to see who had the virus at some point in the past. The CFR starts super high because only the most severe cases are tested as tests are rationed. Nobody actually thinks IFR is over 1% for Covid anymore, unless they completely disregard reason and have political motivations.
Again, you can't handle the truth.
Even if the IFR for Covid-19 is just 1% (which so far hasn't been documented), it would still be TEN TIMES that of seasonal influenza. Your own link says the WHO "estimates" the IFR for Covid-19 as 0.6%. That's STILL six times the IFR for seasonal flu.
Don't you ever get tired of losing these debates?
You’re saying 52 times, and then you’re saying 5 or six times, and you think I’m losing? Lol
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 10, 2020 11:04:08 GMT
And then there is the issue of communicability.
Evidence to date seems to indicate that Covid-19 is more communicable than seasonal flu. This makes a big difference when it comes to trying to control a pandemic:
You can’t harp on how communicable the virus is, know that there are only 12 million confirmed cases worldwide, and then also use the CFR with a novel virus without misunderstanding at least one of those concepts.
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Odysseus
Legend
Trump = Disaster
Posts: 41,115
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Post by Odysseus on Jul 10, 2020 11:59:30 GMT
Oh, but let's just ignore the experts, take Hydroxychloroquine, and inject bleach with a flash light. Yeah, that's the ticket!
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 10, 2020 12:26:25 GMT
Oh, but let's just ignore the experts, take Hydroxychloroquine, and inject bleach with a flash light. Yeah, that's the ticket!
Quick! Change the subject to something political!!
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Odysseus
Legend
Trump = Disaster
Posts: 41,115
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Post by Odysseus on Jul 10, 2020 12:40:44 GMT
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Post by phillip on Jul 10, 2020 22:42:17 GMT
Tens of thousands of people are getting “just the flu” in July? Millions of people are catching a disease that for the vast majority is mostly harmless. Do you dispute that scientific fact?
Must be why hospitals in several states are starting to fill to near capacity again. Because it's harmless.
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Post by Lomelis on Jul 10, 2020 23:54:27 GMT
Millions of people are catching a disease that for the vast majority is mostly harmless. Do you dispute that scientific fact?
Must be why hospitals in several states are starting to fill to near capacity again. Because it's harmless.
It's good that you didn't actually attempt to dispute what I said.
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Post by limey² on Jul 11, 2020 0:22:17 GMT
Now, I'm not one to suggest this Covid19 thing is The End of the World, as my posting here will bear out.
However, there's a sensible approach and there just plain stupid.
Is Disneyland Flori really opening for business?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 14:29:47 GMT
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Post by Lomelis on Jul 11, 2020 16:15:20 GMT
Vaccines typically take years to develop. How long do you think the country can stay locked down while being able to maintain basic government provided services?
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Odysseus
Legend
Trump = Disaster
Posts: 41,115
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Post by Odysseus on Jul 11, 2020 17:31:24 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 17:39:12 GMT
Vaccines typically take years to develop. How long do you think the country can stay locked down while being able to maintain basic government provided services? Hopefully a vaccine won't take years as the entire world is working on it. As a country we haven't been locked down yet, so unknown. Other countries that went on full lockdown seemed to have lowered the curve in a couple of months. We're so far behind the eightball now it's anyone's guess.
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Post by Lomelis on Jul 11, 2020 18:00:31 GMT
Vaccines typically take years to develop. How long do you think the country can stay locked down while being able to maintain basic government provided services? Hopefully a vaccine won't take years as the entire world is working on it. As a country we haven't been locked down yet, so unknown. Other countries that went on full lockdown seemed to have lowered the curve in a couple of months. We're so far behind the eightball now it's anyone's guess. Ok so as a country we didn't completely lock down or at least not consistently and government services are already struggling. How long do you think that could last if there was a complete and total lock down like in Guatemala (which had one of the strictest lock downs in the entire western hemisphere and failed to bend the curve down)?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 18:07:26 GMT
Hopefully a vaccine won't take years as the entire world is working on it. As a country we haven't been locked down yet, so unknown. Other countries that went on full lockdown seemed to have lowered the curve in a couple of months. We're so far behind the eightball now it's anyone's guess. Ok so as a country we didn't completely lock down or at least not consistently and government services are already struggling. How long do you think that could last if there was a complete and total lock down like in Guatemala (which had one of the strictest lock downs in the entire western hemisphere and failed to bend the curve down)? Honestly don't know enough about Guatemala to comment and I'm not th at interested in researching. Completely "locking down" doesn't preclude essential services, grocery, pharmacies, scavenger service etc. States that had Stay at Home orders didn't starve and society and infrastructure didn't break down.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 18:27:16 GMT
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Post by Lomelis on Jul 11, 2020 18:27:41 GMT
Ok so as a country we didn't completely lock down or at least not consistently and government services are already struggling. How long do you think that could last if there was a complete and total lock down like in Guatemala (which had one of the strictest lock downs in the entire western hemisphere and failed to bend the curve down)? Honestly don't know enough about Guatemala to comment and I'm not th at interested in researching. Completely "locking down" doesn't preclude essential services, grocery, pharmacies, scavenger service etc. States that had Stay at Home orders didn't starve and society and infrastructure didn't break down. My question is how long can that last? California has reduced pay for state employees by 10%. Infrastructure projects have been delayed because of a lack of funding. School districts and local municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 18:49:06 GMT
Honestly don't know enough about Guatemala to comment and I'm not th at interested in researching. Completely "locking down" doesn't preclude essential services, grocery, pharmacies, scavenger service etc. States that had Stay at Home orders didn't starve and society and infrastructure didn't break down. My question is how long can that last? California has reduced pay for state employees by 10%. Infrastructure projects have been delayed because of a lack of funding. School districts and local municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Don't know, nobody does. I do know that if we have another mismanaged bailout the prospects for a quick recovery are grim and I'd expect it to take ten years for this country to be prosperous again.
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Post by Lomelis on Jul 11, 2020 18:58:39 GMT
My question is how long can that last? California has reduced pay for state employees by 10%. Infrastructure projects have been delayed because of a lack of funding. School districts and local municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Don't know, nobody does. I do know that if we have another mismanaged bailout the prospects for a quick recovery are grim and I'd expect it to take ten years for this country to be prosperous again. So your idea is that we should continue with lock downs and push the limits of these services (without any idea of how long they can be sustained) in hopes that an effective vaccine is created in record breaking time? In the mean time the non-essentials are supposed to just stay home and do yoga?
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Odysseus
Legend
Trump = Disaster
Posts: 41,115
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Post by Odysseus on Jul 11, 2020 19:16:43 GMT
My question is how long can that last? California has reduced pay for state employees by 10%. Infrastructure projects have been delayed because of a lack of funding. School districts and local municipalities are on the verge of bankruptcy. Don't know, nobody does. I do know that if we have another mismanaged bailout the prospects for a quick recovery are grim and I'd expect it to take ten years for this country to be prosperous again.
Not to worry, we have a President who has bankrupted six businesses, and may be the only one to have lost money running casinos where the house always wins. Will Russian oligarchs be able to bail out America once Trump is finished with his "work"?
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