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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 17:02:48 GMT
Doesn't "doing something" require setting some kind of policy if you want everyone doing it?
What? No. Individuals are completely capable of 'doing something' without a policy proscription from government. In fact, we do it *every*...*single*...*day* of our lives.
One of the most egregious mistakes made was even assuming everyone needs to be doing the same thing. (Hint... vulnerable vs not vulnerable people)
Queshank Morbidly obese 60 year old in a big city versus a strong and healthy 15 year old in a rural town. Same thing. “National Policy”.
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 17:13:34 GMT
Lol. You've been caught straight up spreading false and misleading info several times. Even in this very thread. Where are you from Igor? I'll make you deal. You ask me an intelligent question, and I will gladly converse with you.
Until then, I will treat you at the exact level your words define you as. Freon
Igor, you are a liar and a fraud. A caricature. Not worthy of being taken seriously. Where you from again?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2020 17:14:04 GMT
What? No. Individuals are completely capable of 'doing something' without a policy proscription from government. In fact, we do it *every*...*single*...*day* of our lives.
One of the most egregious mistakes made was even assuming everyone needs to be doing the same thing. (Hint... vulnerable vs not vulnerable people)
Queshank Morbidly obese 60 year old in a big city versus a strong and healthy 15 year old in a rural town. Same thing. “National Policy”.
I was going to revisit and add to it but I can just respond to yours instead.
One of the ... bar none ... *stupidest* thing I've ever seen a government do is sort our national workforce into "essential" and "nonessential" peoples.
It doesn't even make sense. Because that morbidly obese 60 year old in the big city? He's essential and *has to* go to work. He won't even qualify for unemployment benefits if he doesn't. 15 year old in a rural town? Nonessential. They made the 15 year old stay home and the 60 year old go out in the workplace. *Even our fucking teaching bureaucracy did this.* The people who pretend they are exclusively involved in "knowledge."
We didn't sort by "vulnerability." And we're still not. According to investigative reports by the AP (Because Cuomo's administration won't divulge the information) ... as many people died in nursing homes in New York as have died in any other state in our country. And in some countries altogether (double Sweden's death rate *cough*)
Queshank
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2020 17:20:45 GMT
I'm being told that any immunity I had is likely gone, or will be by my next encounter. You get about two months of immunity. I personally know people who have been infected more than once (I'm sorry to say).
Freon
A research group based at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai in New York looked at nearly 20,000 people with mild to moderate illness. The group tells a more reassuring story in an unpublished research report.
It finds that 90% of those people had antibody responses that lasted at least three months. And these antibodies neutralized the virus, at least in the lab.
"It's reasonable to assume that there will be protection for a time frame of one to three years.," says Florian Krammer, one of the scientists on that study. "But of course, we are scientists. We have to prove that, right? That's why everyone's cautious about it. But I think that's a pretty fair assumption."
Queshank
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 18:09:48 GMT
You get about two months of immunity. I personally know people who have been infected more than once (I'm sorry to say).
Freon
A research group based at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai in New York looked at nearly 20,000 people with mild to moderate illness. The group tells a more reassuring story in an unpublished research report.
It finds that 90% of those people had antibody responses that lasted at least three months. And these antibodies neutralized the virus, at least in the lab.
"It's reasonable to assume that there will be protection for a time frame of one to three years.," says Florian Krammer, one of the scientists on that study. "But of course, we are scientists. We have to prove that, right? That's why everyone's cautious about it. But I think that's a pretty fair assumption."
Queshank
You don’t know who freon_bale is. He won’t show us the evidence, because that will reveal his superhero identity, but just know that he knows better and it is two months. Sorry.
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 18:22:24 GMT
I did no such thing, I did not suggest " everybody should just do nothing". In fact you are the one presenting the false dichotomy, you are assuming that the only other option than panic is nothing. You suggested that we should not respond based on incomplete models. All early models are incomplete. The government could have provided guidance, messaging, and targeted resources to at risk groups. The modeling is irrelevant, a fact driven response was all that was required. For example: WARNING: A new disease is spreading across China and is predicted to spread across the globe. Unfortunately data from China is inconclusive and the government of China is untrustworthy. Early data suggests that the elderly and those with underlying health issues and weakened immune systems are most at risk of major complications that can lead to hospitalization or even death. A lot is unknown right now but here are some basic guidelines to the general population that can help protect you and reduce the risk of transmission for not only this disease but many others as well: - Practice proper hygiene. Wipe your ass. Wash your hands. Try not to touch your face, mouth, and nose with your hands. Bathe. - Those in the most at risk groups should practice social distancing. - Stay home and isolate yourself if sick. If complications arise contact your doctor or hospital from home if possible. - Mouth and nose coverings can help reduce the spread of germs and may provide some level of protection for the wearer of the face covering. If those who are in a high risk group can't social distance from others then masks are suggested. - Stay away from nursing homes and other places where there are high concentrations of the most at risk population. Limit your interactions with the elderly and sick as much as possible. Guidelines for nursing homes and other long term/ extended care facilities: - Ensure employees are using proper PPE and practicing proper hygiene. - If possible provide patients with individual rooms. If not then try to provide some sort of separation among patients. - Limit, reduce, or completely eliminate outside visitation. One size does not fit all, proper risk analysis should be used to set policy. - Isolate and quarantine patients that have symptoms of the virus or have tested positive. Any patients that have been returned from the hospital should be quarantined and monitored. - Contact your local medical agency to request additional resources to ensure the safety of your patients. Guidelines for hospitals / emergency rooms / clinics: - Ensure employees are using proper PPE and practicing proper hygiene. - If possible provide patients with individual rooms. If not then try to provide some sort of separation among patients. - Limit, reduce, or completely eliminate outside visitation. One size does not fit all, proper risk analysis should be used to set policy. - Isolate and quarantine patients that have symptoms of the virus or have tested positive. - UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE SHOULD YOU RETURN AN INFECTED PATIENT TO A NURSING HOME.
- UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE ARE YOU TO BYPASS PROCEDURES THAT ARE INTENDED TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF THE PATIENT IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE RISK EXPOSURE TO YOURSELF ( ie don't put everyone on ventilators!) - Contact your local medical agency to request additional resources to ensure the safety of your patients.
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 18:30:58 GMT
Can you show your studies that show you with such certainty that immunity lasts two months? Thanks. Because you’re saying it with absolute certainty, and people are just lapping it up as if it’s fact. Can I show the studies? No. It is not that they don't exist, it's that if I do, I will also give away my RL identity.
I simply do not trust certain members of this forum with that information. If you choose not to believe me, that's fine, I actually approve of skepticism, and in your situation, I'd likely do the same. But this information should be general knowledge in a month or two, so you can verify at that time.
Freon
OMG. Hahahahaha. Igor, we already know who you are:
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 18:40:03 GMT
Morbidly obese 60 year old in a big city versus a strong and healthy 15 year old in a rural town. Same thing. “National Policy”.
I was going to revisit and add to it but I can just respond to yours instead.
One of the ... bar none ... *stupidest* thing I've ever seen a government do is sort our national workforce into "essential" and "nonessential" peoples.
It doesn't even make sense. Because that morbidly obese 60 year old in the big city? He's essential and *has to* go to work. He won't even qualify for unemployment benefits if he doesn't. 15 year old in a rural town? Nonessential. They made the 15 year old stay home and the 60 year old go out in the workplace. *Even our fucking teaching bureaucracy did this.* The people who pretend they are exclusively involved in "knowledge."
We didn't sort by "vulnerability." And we're still not. According to investigative reports by the AP (Because Cuomo's administration won't divulge the information) ... as many people died in nursing homes in New York as have died in any other state in our country. And in some countries altogether (double Sweden's death rate *cough*)
Queshank
It kind of makes sense if the government is run by a selfish elitist class that is only looking after it's own interests. They don't care about the vulnerable. They need people providing services for them that they consider essential to maintain their power and control.
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 20:01:54 GMT
So herd immunity requires a minimum of 50% threshold and up to 80%. Using the 50% number, that would mean the United States would require 165,000,000 infections to achieve herd. The word mortality rate today is about 3%, but is probably lower due to under testing. So, even using a .5% mortality rate we would be looking at 825,000 American deaths. This is acceptable to whom? Wear a mask, social distance. I'm curious. At which point do you go from it's not that big of a deal to we need to crush civilization in order to save lives?
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Post by Mercy for All on Aug 23, 2020 0:00:59 GMT
What? No. Individuals are completely capable of 'doing something' without a policy proscription from government. In fact, we do it *every*...*single*...*day* of our lives.
One of the most egregious mistakes made was even assuming everyone needs to be doing the same thing. (Hint... vulnerable vs not vulnerable people)
Queshank And we trust all individuals to do the right thing? Here's a comparison (you can decide whether or not it is apt). In World War 2, people on the west coast were required to turn off their lights, because the models suggested that a mainland attack from the Japanese was imminent. It was not, because the model was...premature. You try to trust every individual to "do the right thing" based on "the information available" (because that's working so well in the present?), but one person leaving the lights on undermines the whole project. Of course, given all the individuals who are choosing to do what they decide is the "right thing" based on their own interpretations of "the information available" (read: their individually informed premature models), there is no consistency in response.
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Post by Mercy for All on Aug 23, 2020 0:03:27 GMT
The government could have provided guidance, messaging, and targeted resources to at risk groups. The modeling is irrelevant, a fact driven response was all that was required. For example: WARNING: A new disease is spreading across China and is predicted to spread across the globe. Unfortunately data from China is inconclusive and the government of China is untrustworthy. Early data suggests that the elderly and those with underlying health issues and weakened immune systems are most at risk of major complications that can lead to hospitalization or even death. A lot is unknown right now but here are some basic guidelines to the general population that can help protect you and reduce the risk of transmission for not only this disease but many others as well: - Practice proper hygiene. Wipe your ass. Wash your hands. Try not to touch your face, mouth, and nose with your hands. Bathe. - Those in the most at risk groups should practice social distancing. - Stay home and isolate yourself if sick. If complications arise contact your doctor or hospital from home if possible. - Mouth and nose coverings can help reduce the spread of germs and may provide some level of protection for the wearer of the face covering. If those who are in a high risk group can't social distance from others then masks are suggested. - Stay away from nursing homes and other places where there are high concentrations of the most at risk population. Limit your interactions with the elderly and sick as much as possible. Guidelines for nursing homes and other long term/ extended care facilities: - Ensure employees are using proper PPE and practicing proper hygiene. - If possible provide patients with individual rooms. If not then try to provide some sort of separation among patients. - Limit, reduce, or completely eliminate outside visitation. One size does not fit all, proper risk analysis should be used to set policy. - Isolate and quarantine patients that have symptoms of the virus or have tested positive. Any patients that have been returned from the hospital should be quarantined and monitored. - Contact your local medical agency to request additional resources to ensure the safety of your patients. Guidelines for hospitals / emergency rooms / clinics: - Ensure employees are using proper PPE and practicing proper hygiene. - If possible provide patients with individual rooms. If not then try to provide some sort of separation among patients. - Limit, reduce, or completely eliminate outside visitation. One size does not fit all, proper risk analysis should be used to set policy. - Isolate and quarantine patients that have symptoms of the virus or have tested positive. - UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE SHOULD YOU RETURN AN INFECTED PATIENT TO A NURSING HOME.
- UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE ARE YOU TO BYPASS PROCEDURES THAT ARE INTENDED TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF THE PATIENT IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE RISK EXPOSURE TO YOURSELF ( ie don't put everyone on ventilators!) - Contact your local medical agency to request additional resources to ensure the safety of your patients. And it's at this point that you are basically saying that "all the experts"...um... pretty well everywhere...are just wrong and you're right. You disagree with their model and you disagree with their response. It's not that you disagree that there should be a policy-driven response to whatever model...just that they were wrong.
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 23, 2020 0:36:12 GMT
The government could have provided guidance, messaging, and targeted resources to at risk groups. The modeling is irrelevant, a fact driven response was all that was required. For example: WARNING: A new disease is spreading across China and is predicted to spread across the globe. Unfortunately data from China is inconclusive and the government of China is untrustworthy. Early data suggests that the elderly and those with underlying health issues and weakened immune systems are most at risk of major complications that can lead to hospitalization or even death. A lot is unknown right now but here are some basic guidelines to the general population that can help protect you and reduce the risk of transmission for not only this disease but many others as well: - Practice proper hygiene. Wipe your ass. Wash your hands. Try not to touch your face, mouth, and nose with your hands. Bathe. - Those in the most at risk groups should practice social distancing. - Stay home and isolate yourself if sick. If complications arise contact your doctor or hospital from home if possible. - Mouth and nose coverings can help reduce the spread of germs and may provide some level of protection for the wearer of the face covering. If those who are in a high risk group can't social distance from others then masks are suggested. - Stay away from nursing homes and other places where there are high concentrations of the most at risk population. Limit your interactions with the elderly and sick as much as possible. Guidelines for nursing homes and other long term/ extended care facilities: - Ensure employees are using proper PPE and practicing proper hygiene. - If possible provide patients with individual rooms. If not then try to provide some sort of separation among patients. - Limit, reduce, or completely eliminate outside visitation. One size does not fit all, proper risk analysis should be used to set policy. - Isolate and quarantine patients that have symptoms of the virus or have tested positive. Any patients that have been returned from the hospital should be quarantined and monitored. - Contact your local medical agency to request additional resources to ensure the safety of your patients. Guidelines for hospitals / emergency rooms / clinics: - Ensure employees are using proper PPE and practicing proper hygiene. - If possible provide patients with individual rooms. If not then try to provide some sort of separation among patients. - Limit, reduce, or completely eliminate outside visitation. One size does not fit all, proper risk analysis should be used to set policy. - Isolate and quarantine patients that have symptoms of the virus or have tested positive. - UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE SHOULD YOU RETURN AN INFECTED PATIENT TO A NURSING HOME.
- UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCE ARE YOU TO BYPASS PROCEDURES THAT ARE INTENDED TO PROTECT THE HEALTH OF THE PATIENT IN ORDER TO REDUCE THE RISK EXPOSURE TO YOURSELF ( ie don't put everyone on ventilators!) - Contact your local medical agency to request additional resources to ensure the safety of your patients. And it's at this point that you are basically saying that "all the experts"...um... pretty well everywhere...are just wrong and you're right. You disagree with their model and you disagree with their response. It's not that you disagree that there should be a policy-driven response to whatever model...just that they were wrong.Actually I responded with an example of how they could have responded, an example that would be a very mild response but not a non response. You've been suggesting that there is an all or nothing approach. Either full blown panic or nobody doing anything at all. I provided an example to counter -your- false dichotomy.
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 23, 2020 0:50:20 GMT
What? No. Individuals are completely capable of 'doing something' without a policy proscription from government. In fact, we do it *every*...*single*...*day* of our lives.
One of the most egregious mistakes made was even assuming everyone needs to be doing the same thing. (Hint... vulnerable vs not vulnerable people)
Queshank And we trust all individuals to do the right thing? Here's a comparison (you can decide whether or not it is apt). In World War 2, people on the west coast were required to turn off their lights, because the models suggested that a mainland attack from the Japanese was imminent. It was not, because the model was...premature. You try to trust every individual to "do the right thing" based on "the information available" (because that's working so well in the present?), but one person leaving the lights on undermines the whole project. Of course, given all the individuals who are choosing to do what they decide is the "right thing" based on their own interpretations of "the information available" (read: their individually informed premature models), there is no consistency in response. The right thing to do to actually save lives would be to lock everyone over 65 in isolated basements or cells and lock all the fatties up in full sized hamster wheels that we could also use to generate electricity. Everyone else could work, reproduce, and be merry. Would you support such a policy if it not only protected as many as possible and also doesn't crush civilization?
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2020 15:04:47 GMT
What? No. Individuals are completely capable of 'doing something' without a policy proscription from government. In fact, we do it *every*...*single*...*day* of our lives.
One of the most egregious mistakes made was even assuming everyone needs to be doing the same thing. (Hint... vulnerable vs not vulnerable people)
Queshank And we trust all individuals to do the right thing? Here's a comparison (you can decide whether or not it is apt). In World War 2, people on the west coast were required to turn off their lights, because the models suggested that a mainland attack from the Japanese was imminent. It was not, because the model was...premature. You try to trust every individual to "do the right thing" based on "the information available" (because that's working so well in the present?), but one person leaving the lights on undermines the whole project. Of course, given all the individuals who are choosing to do what they decide is the "right thing" based on their own interpretations of "the information available" (read: their individually informed premature models), there is no consistency in response. Okay let's use your comparison/analogy and make it a little more accurate.
Were the models about an attack from the Japanese put together by biased individuals who have been warning ... erroneously ... that the Japanese were going to attack and kill millions multiple times over the 20 years leading up to WW2? Did multiple internationally renowned scientists and experts come out almost immediately say "these predictions about the Japanese attacking are overblown and obviously biased?"
And when the predicted attack didn't come, did government officials insist the local residents keep their lights off for another 6 months just to be on the safe side "until we know for sure?" and refuse to admit the attack wasn't going to happen after all?
Now we're talking about the same things and your analogy fits.
Chinese peasants are good at uniform "doing what they're told" by corrupt rulers. So long as we define "what is right" as "what the 'experts' say" they're 100% on board.
A nation of kings tends to need a bit more persuasion than "I'm a politically appointed expert who is part of a bureaucracy that has repeatedly been wrong and repeatedly lied to you time and again over the past several decades. Trust me. Ignore those other experts without our seal of approval."
Queshank
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2020 13:26:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2020 18:37:10 GMT
What an interesting headline. Does it? Does it suggest that? One dude in Hong Kong. With multiple caveats that "more research is needed." What are we at now? 24 million "cases" worldwide. After an exhaustive search, researchers *may have* found 1 dude who *may* have been reinfected. But more study is needed. Probably because it's a case in one of the ... if not the ... least credible regions of the world on this issue. 1 in 24 million may be reinfected ... and survive again ... Hmm. I'm a Chinese peasant and I don't like those odds. Sounds dangerous. Excellent rationale for Ezekiel Emmanuel to take another round on news shows calling for shutdowns to extend into 2022 instead of 2021 as his first round of political "expertise" suggested. Queshank
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