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Post by Lomelis on Aug 21, 2020 7:14:17 GMT
An interesting article from the New York Times that unintentionally supports the conclusion that the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason: www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.htmlA couple of other interesting quotes: A recognition that models are flawed... A recognition that models are simply just guesses that should not be used to set policy... I'm kind of super fucking curious to know where these scientists were 5 months ago when models predicting millions of deaths in the US were being used to set policy at a time when jack shit was known about the virus. |
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Post by Mercy for All on Aug 21, 2020 12:18:59 GMT
"...the conclusion that the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason."
You've introduced a false dichotomy. If herd immunity is closer than expected, it doesn't follow that "the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason."
You seem to suggest that because a model is premature and imperfect, everybody should just do nothing. Doesn't work in business. Doesn't work in science. Doesn't even work in life.
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Post by Fiddler on Aug 21, 2020 13:10:20 GMT
that unintentionally supports the conclusion Translation: I found a few sentences that I can spin to confirm my biases ...
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Post by freonbale on Aug 21, 2020 14:27:39 GMT
An interesting article from the New York Times that unintentionally supports the conclusion that the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason: www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.htmlA couple of other interesting quotes: A recognition that models are flawed... A recognition that models are simply just guesses that should not be used to set policy... I'm kind of super fucking curious to know where these scientists were 5 months ago when models predicting millions of deaths in the US were being used to set policy at a time when jack shit was known about the virus. I would be thrilled if herd immunity was obtainable in the short-run. But the science, and more importantly, what is happening in our hospitals, does not support that conclusion.
The more armchair scientists we have who think that COVID is not a threat, the longer it will take to get it under control.
I'm lookin' at you, Lomelis
Freon
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 21, 2020 19:06:43 GMT
An interesting article from the New York Times that unintentionally supports the conclusion that the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason: www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.htmlA couple of other interesting quotes: A recognition that models are flawed... A recognition that models are simply just guesses that should not be used to set policy... I'm kind of super fucking curious to know where these scientists were 5 months ago when models predicting millions of deaths in the US were being used to set policy at a time when jack shit was known about the virus. I would be thrilled if herd immunity was obtainable in the short-run. But the science, and more importantly, what is happening in our hospitals, does not support that conclusion.
The more armchair scientists we have who think that COVID is not a threat, the longer it will take to get it under control.
I'm lookin' at you, Lomelis
Freon
Why is Sweden, who most agree took the least government action, seemingly at a point where it’s “under control”? They didn’t seek to “flatten the curve”. Not like the rest of the world. They took it as, if not “not a threat”, then certainly less of a threat. |
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bama beau
Legend
Fish will piss anywhere. They just live in water.
Posts: 11,607
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Post by bama beau on Aug 21, 2020 19:27:37 GMT
I'm being told that any immunity I had is
likely gone, or will be by my next encounter.
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Post by freonbale on Aug 21, 2020 19:36:38 GMT
I would be thrilled if herd immunity was obtainable in the short-run. But the science, and more importantly, what is happening in our hospitals, does not support that conclusion.
The more armchair scientists we have who think that COVID is not a threat, the longer it will take to get it under control.
I'm lookin' at you, Lomelis
Freon
Why is Sweden, who most agree took the least government action, seemingly at a point where it’s “under control”? They didn’t seek to “flatten the curve”. Not like the rest of the world. They took it as, if not “not a threat”, then certainly less of a threat. I keep thinking I'm talking to people who understand how to understand data, and you keep reminding me that you don't.
Hey, there's this one place that did one thing, and that means anyone can do what they did and get the same results.
That's not how it works.
There are at least a dozen reasons I can think of off the top of my head that a comparison between us and Sweden (Sweden, really?) makes no sense. You realize they have 10 million people in their entire country right? That is less than some of our CITIES.
But, if you're really willing to extrapolate that what works in Sweden would work here, then I highly suggest you look at their universal healthcare system. It is supposed to be wonderful.
Freon
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Post by freonbale on Aug 21, 2020 19:39:30 GMT
I'm being told that any immunity I had is likely gone, or will be by my next encounter. You get about two months of immunity.
I personally know people who have been infected more than once (I'm sorry to say).
Freon
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bama beau
Legend
Fish will piss anywhere. They just live in water.
Posts: 11,607
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Post by bama beau on Aug 21, 2020 19:44:57 GMT
I'm being told that any immunity I had is likely gone, or will be by my next encounter. You get about two months of immunity.
I personally know people who have been infected more than once (I'm sorry to say).
Freon
How can a herd develop effective immunity when any immunity is so short lived while the virus will continue to exist and adapt year after year after year? We need a vaccine. |
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Post by freonbale on Aug 21, 2020 19:51:18 GMT
You get about two months of immunity.
I personally know people who have been infected more than once (I'm sorry to say).
Freon
How can a herd develop effective immunity when any immunity is so short lived while the virus will continue to exist and adapt year after year after year? We need a vaccine. Exactly.
Freon
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thor
Legend
Posts: 20,526
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Post by thor on Aug 21, 2020 19:57:32 GMT
I would be thrilled if herd immunity was obtainable in the short-run. But the science, and more importantly, what is happening in our hospitals, does not support that conclusion.
The more armchair scientists we have who think that COVID is not a threat, the longer it will take to get it under control.
I'm lookin' at you, Lomelis
Freon
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair, describing Lom |
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 21, 2020 20:06:20 GMT
Why is Sweden, who most agree took the least government action, seemingly at a point where it’s “under control”? They didn’t seek to “flatten the curve”. Not like the rest of the world. They took it as, if not “not a threat”, then certainly less of a threat. I keep thinking I'm talking to people who understand how to understand data, and you keep reminding me that you don't.
Hey, there's this one place that did one thing, and that means anyone can do what they did and get the same results.
That's not how it works.
There are at least a dozen reasons I can think of off the top of my head that a comparison between us and Sweden (Sweden, really?) makes no sense. You realize they have 10 million people in their entire country right? That is less than some of our CITIES.
But, if you're really willing to extrapolate that what works in Sweden would work here, then I highly suggest you look at their universal healthcare system. It is supposed to be wonderful.
Freon
But they are people, right? And it’s the same virus? New York made a lot of mistakes, but they seem to have gained some level of herd immunity as well. Their curve looks a lot like Sweden’s. Their daily death curve looks damn near identical. Same species of people. Same virus. Different outcomes in terms of magnitude, but a similar pattern. Interesting, that. Simply saying somebody else doesn’t know how to look at data doesn’t make it so, Karen. |
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 21, 2020 20:10:49 GMT
I'm being told that any immunity I had is likely gone, or will be by my next encounter. You get about two months of immunity. Lol. You say this with such certainty. What a crock of shit. You don’t know this. |
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 21, 2020 20:11:51 GMT
You get about two months of immunity.
I personally know people who have been infected more than once (I'm sorry to say).
Freon
How can a herd develop effective immunity when any immunity is so short lived while the virus will continue to exist and adapt year after year after year? We need a vaccine. So you just bought the two months thing as if it is a proven fact. Interesting. Lockdown until there is a vaccine!!!!111eleven |
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Post by MojoJojo on Aug 21, 2020 21:31:58 GMT
Herd is herd, whether it's attained via vaccine or exposure. Roughly 50~80% required immunity to attain? Vaccine can't be too far off and if we're assuming the number of already infected is ten (10) times the known, that's 60 million. This is where the two month immunity thing becomes incredibly important. Assuming the antibodies are merely present, post infection, for two months because the virus has been extinguished makes sense. Does re-exposure create a resurgence in those antibodies? If so, we're golden...if not, herd is impossible without a vaccine. Sorry, a 420 rambling at 5:30.  |
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bama beau
Legend
Fish will piss anywhere. They just live in water.
Posts: 11,607
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Post by bama beau on Aug 21, 2020 22:08:50 GMT
How can a herd develop effective immunity when any immunity is so short lived while the virus will continue to exist and adapt year after year after year? We need a vaccine. So you just bought the two months thing as if it is a proven fact. Interesting. Lockdown until there is a vaccine!!!!111eleven Nobody bought anything. I was following a train of thought, something which lately you seem unable to do. |
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bama beau
Legend
Fish will piss anywhere. They just live in water.
Posts: 11,607
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Post by bama beau on Aug 21, 2020 22:10:16 GMT
I keep thinking I'm talking to people who understand how to understand data, and you keep reminding me that you don't.
Hey, there's this one place that did one thing, and that means anyone can do what they did and get the same results.
That's not how it works.
There are at least a dozen reasons I can think of off the top of my head that a comparison between us and Sweden (Sweden, really?) makes no sense. You realize they have 10 million people in their entire country right? That is less than some of our CITIES.
But, if you're really willing to extrapolate that what works in Sweden would work here, then I highly suggest you look at their universal healthcare system. It is supposed to be wonderful.
Freon
But they are people, right? And it’s the same virus? New York made a lot of mistakes, but they seem to have gained some level of herd immunity as well.Their curve looks a lot like Sweden’s. Their daily death curve looks damn near identical. Same species of people. Same virus. Different outcomes in terms of magnitude, but a similar pattern. Interesting, that. Simply saying somebody else doesn’t know how to look at data doesn’t make it so, Karen. BS, yet you buy it so willingly. Behavior is protecting NY'ers, not herd immunity. |
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 21, 2020 22:18:02 GMT
But they are people, right? And it’s the same virus? New York made a lot of mistakes, but they seem to have gained some level of herd immunity as well.Their curve looks a lot like Sweden’s. Their daily death curve looks damn near identical. Same species of people. Same virus. Different outcomes in terms of magnitude, but a similar pattern. Interesting, that. Simply saying somebody else doesn’t know how to look at data doesn’t make it so, Karen. BS, yet you buy it so willingly. Behavior is protecting NY'ers, not herd immunity. Why is Sweden experiencing a trickle of cases and virtually no deaths? And aren’t right wingers all flagrantly ignoring things? Not many in New York, but some. |
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 0:54:48 GMT
"...the conclusion that the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason." You've introduced a false dichotomy. If herd immunity is closer than expected, it doesn't follow that "the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason." You seem to suggest that because a model is premature and imperfect, everybody should just do nothing. Doesn't work in business. Doesn't work in science. Doesn't even work in life. I did no such thing, I did not suggest " everybody should just do nothing". In fact you are the one presenting the false dichotomy, you are assuming that the only other option than panic is nothing. There are models that have varying degrees of accuracy and policies implemented based on those models can have a wide range of effects. Policies that can potentially effect millions of people should be heavily scrutinized. That didn't happen. Models based almost entirely on the unknown were used to justify policies that have negatively impacted billions of people. Omg millions could die in the US if we don't lockdown! That is panic. And it turned out to be false. The pandemic is still steam rolling through the country its just not nearly as dangerous as assumed. |
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 0:57:28 GMT
that unintentionally supports the conclusion Translation: I found a few sentences that I can spin to confirm my biases ...
I am biased toward reality. There was no spin. |
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