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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 1:00:26 GMT
An interesting article from the New York Times that unintentionally supports the conclusion that the medical establishment around the world panicked instead of using good judgement based on scientific fact and reason: www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.htmlA couple of other interesting quotes: A recognition that models are flawed... A recognition that models are simply just guesses that should not be used to set policy... I'm kind of super fucking curious to know where these scientists were 5 months ago when models predicting millions of deaths in the US were being used to set policy at a time when jack shit was known about the virus. I would be thrilled if herd immunity was obtainable in the short-run. But the science, and more importantly, what is happening in our hospitals, does not support that conclusion.
The more armchair scientists we have who think that COVID is not a threat, the longer it will take to get it under control.
I'm lookin' at you, Lomelis
Freon
Lol. You've been caught straight up spreading false and misleading info several times. Even in this very thread. Where are you from Igor? |
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Post by Lomelis on Aug 22, 2020 1:02:16 GMT
You get about two months of immunity. Lol. You say this with such certainty. What a crock of shit. You don’t know this. They just gobble up his shit without question. |
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bama beau
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Post by bama beau on Aug 22, 2020 3:11:45 GMT
BS, yet you buy it so willingly. Behavior is protecting NY'ers, not herd immunity. Why is Sweden experiencing a trickle of cases and virtually no deaths? And aren’t right wingers all flagrantly ignoring things? Not many in New York, but some. Not many here don't wear masks in public. Those who don't are definitely treated differently. We learned. For a while, anyway. You don't want this shit, rabbit. You want to help us track and contain it AMAP until we have a vaccine. Short term immunity is almost no immumity at all. |
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Post by freonbale on Aug 22, 2020 5:24:55 GMT
I would be thrilled if herd immunity was obtainable in the short-run. But the science, and more importantly, what is happening in our hospitals, does not support that conclusion.
The more armchair scientists we have who think that COVID is not a threat, the longer it will take to get it under control.
I'm lookin' at you, Lomelis
Freon
Lol. You've been caught straight up spreading false and misleading info several times. Even in this very thread. Where are you from Igor? I'll make you deal. You ask me an intelligent question, and I will gladly converse with you.
Until then, I will treat you at the exact level your words define you as.
Freon
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 10:41:02 GMT
Lol. You've been caught straight up spreading false and misleading info several times. Even in this very thread. Where are you from Igor? I'll make you deal. You ask me an intelligent question, and I will gladly converse with you.
Until then, I will treat you at the exact level your words define you as.
Freon
Can you show your studies that show you with such certainty that immunity lasts two months? Thanks. Because you’re saying it with absolute certainty, and people are just lapping it up as if it’s fact. |
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Post by Mercy for All on Aug 22, 2020 13:01:56 GMT
I did no such thing, I did not suggest " everybody should just do nothing". In fact you are the one presenting the false dichotomy, you are assuming that the only other option than panic is nothing. You suggested that we should not respond based on incomplete models. All early models are incomplete. |
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MojoJojo
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Post by MojoJojo on Aug 22, 2020 13:27:05 GMT
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 13:39:36 GMT
So it’s specifically with antibodies and not other ways the body fights infections, and the number of studies is very small and from potentially unreliable sources.. And it’s a “few months”. Maybe people shouldn’t just lap up “two months immunity”. |
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MojoJojo
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Post by MojoJojo on Aug 22, 2020 13:50:44 GMT
So it’s specifically with antibodies and not other ways the body fights infections, and the number of studies is very small and from potentially unreliable sources.. And it’s a “few months”. Maybe people shouldn’t just lap up “two months immunity”. Yeah, that's my take-away too. The time span of the ability to reproduce these antibodies, due to re-expoure, is the bazillion dollar question. Seems the initial antibodies fade within a few months but the ability to make more? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2020 14:56:53 GMT
I did no such thing, I did not suggest " everybody should just do nothing". In fact you are the one presenting the false dichotomy, you are assuming that the only other option than panic is nothing. You suggested that we should not respond based on incomplete models. All early models are incomplete.
There is a false premise being pushed by the Chinese peasantry crowd.
The premise being that "don't set policy based on incomplete data" ... which is a very bad idea ... means the same thing as "do nothing."
Even the much maligned people of Sweden didn't "do nothing."
But one thing they didn't do is sacrifice individual liberty and the choices rational people make on the altars of state sovereignty and guesses. Queshank
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Post by freonbale on Aug 22, 2020 15:25:14 GMT
I'll make you deal. You ask me an intelligent question, and I will gladly converse with you.
Until then, I will treat you at the exact level your words define you as.
Freon
Can you show your studies that show you with such certainty that immunity lasts two months? Thanks. Because you’re saying it with absolute certainty, and people are just lapping it up as if it’s fact. Can I show the studies? No. It is not that they don't exist, it's that if I do, I will also give away my RL identity.
I simply do not trust certain members of this forum with that information.
If you choose not to believe me, that's fine, I actually approve of skepticism, and in your situation, I'd likely do the same. But this information should be general knowledge in a month or two, so you can verify at that time.
Freon
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 15:34:55 GMT
Can you show your studies that show you with such certainty that immunity lasts two months? Thanks. Because you’re saying it with absolute certainty, and people are just lapping it up as if it’s fact. Can I show the studies? No. It is not that they don't exist, it's that if I do, I will also give away my RL identity.
I simply do not trust certain members of this forum with that information.
If you choose not to believe me, that's fine, I actually approve of skepticism, and in your situation, I'd likely do the same. But this information should be general knowledge in a month or two, so you can verify at that time.
Freon
Bwaaaaaa hahahahaha hahahahaha haha! |
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Post by Mercy for All on Aug 22, 2020 15:42:48 GMT
There is a false premise being pushed by the Chinese peasantry crowd.
The premise being that "don't set policy based on incomplete data" ... which is a very bad idea ... means the same thing as "do nothing."
Even the much maligned people of Sweden didn't "do nothing."
But one thing they didn't do is sacrifice individual liberty and the choices rational people make on the altars of state sovereignty and guesses. Queshank
Doesn't "doing something" require setting some kind of policy if you want everyone doing it? |
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bama beau
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Fish will piss anywhere. They just live in water.
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Post by bama beau on Aug 22, 2020 15:57:46 GMT
Apologies for people like Que and rabbit who
would seem to liken Typhoid Mary to Rosa Parks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2020 16:35:26 GMT
So herd immunity requires a minimum of 50% threshold and up to 80%.
Using the 50% number, that would mean the United States would require 165,000,000 infections to achieve herd. The word mortality rate today is about 3%, but is probably lower due to under testing.
So, even using a .5% mortality rate we would be looking at 825,000 American deaths.
This is acceptable to whom?
Wear a mask, social distance.
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thor
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Post by thor on Aug 22, 2020 16:36:30 GMT
You suggested that we should not respond based on incomplete models. All early models are incomplete.
There is a false premise being pushed by the Chinese peasantry crowd.
The premise being that "don't set policy based on incomplete data" ... which is a very bad idea ... means the same thing as "do nothing."
Even the much maligned people of Sweden didn't "do nothing."
But one thing they didn't do is sacrifice individual liberty and the choices rational people make on the altars of state sovereignty and guesses. Queshank
Well, we know who Q-Bert would have been helping in WWII. Because fREdum. Or something. ![]()  |
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 16:40:45 GMT
Apologies for people like Que and rabbit who would seem to liken Typhoid Mary to Rosa Parks. Apologies to nitwits who correctly call Trump an authoritarian while simultaneously and without irony demand that he place the whole country on house arrest. |
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Post by rabbitreborn on Aug 22, 2020 16:41:33 GMT
So herd immunity requires a minimum of 50% threshold and up to 80%. Using the 50% number, that would mean the United States would require 165,000,000 infections to achieve herd. The word mortality rate today is about 3%, but is probably lower due to under testing. So, even using a .5% mortality rate we would be looking at 8,250,000 American deaths. This is acceptable to whom? Wear a mask, social distance. Do your math again. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2020 16:54:33 GMT
So herd immunity requires a minimum of 50% threshold and up to 80%. Using the 50% number, that would mean the United States would require 165,000,000 infections to achieve herd. The word mortality rate today is about 3%, but is probably lower due to under testing. So, even using a .5% mortality rate we would be looking at 8,250,000 American deaths. This is acceptable to whom? Wear a mask, social distance. Do your math again. Whoops, fixed. Thx. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2020 16:55:09 GMT
There is a false premise being pushed by the Chinese peasantry crowd.
The premise being that "don't set policy based on incomplete data" ... which is a very bad idea ... means the same thing as "do nothing."
Even the much maligned people of Sweden didn't "do nothing."
But one thing they didn't do is sacrifice individual liberty and the choices rational people make on the altars of state sovereignty and guesses. Queshank
Doesn't "doing something" require setting some kind of policy if you want everyone doing it?
What? No. Individuals are completely capable of 'doing something' without a policy proscription from government. In fact, we do it *every*...*single*...*day* of our lives.
One of the most egregious mistakes made was even assuming everyone needs to be doing the same thing. (Hint... vulnerable vs not vulnerable people)
Queshank |
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