Ukraine's Chances of Pushing Russia Out Look Increasingly Grim
On the battlefronts of the east, threadbare Ukrainian forces are doggedly holding on against mounting Russian assaults that are expected to crescendo in the summer. Thinned air defenses struggle to stop Russian 1.5-ton guided bombs from pulverizing buildings. Front lines are held by a patchwork of units that are short of their full complement of troops. Halting armored columns depends largely on small explosive drones, given meager supplies of artillery shells...
Was the threat the same 30 years ago during the chaos after the WP broke up?
No.
According to whom? The Baltic Republics certainly thought it was a threat and were seeking membership immediately.
The threat is far greater now, which is why the last two joined.
Ukraine has considered it an ongoing threat since the 1990s. They've been trying to join since then. Georgia wants to join. Sweden and Finland just joined.
So, is NATO a deterrent or not? Your response seems to imply that it isn't.
My question was about Ukraine - Are you willing to bet the safety and security of people in other countries on your opinion?
First, the issue you were addressing was about Russia attacking NATO countries (which Ukraine isn't), so your question wouldn't have made sense to be only about Ukraine. Second, if your question was solely about Ukraine, why use the plural? Also, Russia already invaded Ukraine - starting in 2014 - so how would this apply to what I said about Russia being deterred from invading NATO members?
But again it comes down to: is NATO a deterrent or not? If it is, then claims about Russia moving on the Baltic Republics, Poland, etc. are way overblown. If it's not, then there's no point in anyone seeking NATO membership.
Pick up a history book regarding the long history of Russian interaction with the Baltic States.
Again, my question was about Ukraine - Are you willing to bet the safety and security of people in other countries on your opinion?
Pick up a history book regarding the long history of Russian interaction with the Baltic States.
Yeah, that's why they wanted in NATO as soon the Soviet Union collapsed as noted above.
Again, my question was about Ukraine - Are you willing to bet the safety and security of people in other countries on your opinion?
My opinion is that Russia would be deterred from attacking NATO member states. Not sure what the safety and security of people in Ukraine has to do with that, since they're already being attacked and aren't a NATO member (the latter being conducive to the former).
And any negotiated settlement to this conflict is likely to preclude Ukraine joining NATO, so there's going to have to be other options for Ukraine, like developing its native defense industry and making it a hard target (similar to Finland prior to its joining NATO).
Pick up a history book regarding the long history of Russian interaction with the Baltic States.
Yeah, that's why they wanted in NATO as soon the Soviet Union collapsed as noted above.
Again, my question was about Ukraine - Are you willing to bet the safety and security of people in other countries on your opinion?
My opinion is that Russia would be deterred from attacking NATO member states. Not sure what the safety and security of people in Ukraine has to do with that, since they're already being attacked and aren't a NATO member (the latter being conducive to the former).
And any negotiated settlement to this conflict is likely to preclude Ukraine joining NATO, so there's going to have to be other options for Ukraine, like developing its native defense industry and making it a hard target (similar to Finland prior to its joining NATO).
My opinion is this is that the Baltics were playing the long game.
My opinion is this is that the Baltics were playing the long game.
Yes. They had significant Russian minorities, and Russia was making a push to use those minorities as leverage in a lot of former Soviet Republics (Moldova, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, etc.).
They also would've been easy pickings for a revanchist Russia without a serious security guarantee.
European nations with Patriot missiles hesitate to give the air defense systems to Ukraine
European Union countries possessing Patriot air defense systems gave no clear signal on Monday whether they might be willing to supply them to Ukraine, which is desperately seeking at least seven of the missile batteries to help fend off Russian air attacks... Only Germany has come forward with a single Patriot missile battery in answer to Ukraine’s latest request...
Did Boris Johnson really sabotage peace talks between Russia and Ukraine? The reality is more complicated
The war in Ukraine will be a source of fascination and study for historians for decades to come. Even today, two years in, we’re starting to see research into some of the big moments that characterised the early days of the conflict, and which sheds light on the confusing welter of news stories that emerged at the time. Military analysts, for example, have already been able to reconstruct some of the most critical battles of the war’s early days, showing how contingent and critical Russia’s failure to establish a beachhead at Hostomel airport near Kyiv was to the course of the war, when history could easily have gone down a different path...
The battle for Hostomel was critical. The airport changed hands a number of times after the initial attack. Even when the Russian Airborne had it, the Ukrainians littered it with debris so no planes could land.
Without Hostomel, Kiev was out of reach.
That was the first thing to save Ukraine, making its inevitable conquest a non-guaranteed thing...
There’s been a lot of debate about what the future holds for Europe and its neighborhood if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine succeeds. We already know at least part of the answer, because it’s happening in Georgia. This is the small Caucasus country where President Vladimir Putin first made clear he was willing to use force to re-impose a Russian sphere of control and influence. How that war began remains controversial, and I’ll get to the question later. What happened since shouldn’t be...
Feel like this conflict often gets lost in the discussion about Ukraine. Not sure even most people remember it. A good read on the Georgia situation is Near Abroad by Gerard Toal.
Russia ramps up arms production as US boosts support for Ukraine
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered an increase in weapons production for the war in Ukraine, his ministry said, days after the United States approved a delayed multibillion-dollar military aid package for the Ukrainian government. At a meeting on Wednesday with Russia’s top military brass, Shoigu said the volume, quality and speed of arms production needed boosting, and also ordered the repair of units on the front lines in Ukraine’s east and south to improve their efficiency, the Ministry of Defence said on the Telegram messaging app...
Not sure how much longer they keep this up. Might come down to who runs out of what first: Russia out of arms or Ukraine out of men (see here, here, here, and here).
There’s been a lot of debate about what the future holds for Europe and its neighborhood if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine succeeds. We already know at least part of the answer, because it’s happening in Georgia. This is the small Caucasus country where President Vladimir Putin first made clear he was willing to use force to re-impose a Russian sphere of control and influence. How that war began remains controversial, and I’ll get to the question later. What happened since shouldn’t be...
Feel like this conflict often gets lost in the discussion about Ukraine. Not sure even most people remember it. A good read on the Georgia situation is Near Abroad by Gerard Toal.
Russia ramps up arms production as US boosts support for Ukraine
Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered an increase in weapons production for the war in Ukraine, his ministry said, days after the United States approved a delayed multibillion-dollar military aid package for the Ukrainian government. At a meeting on Wednesday with Russia’s top military brass, Shoigu said the volume, quality and speed of arms production needed boosting, and also ordered the repair of units on the front lines in Ukraine’s east and south to improve their efficiency, the Ministry of Defence said on the Telegram messaging app...
Not sure how much longer than keep this up. Might come down to who runs out of what first: Russia out of arms or Ukraine out of men (see here, here, here, and here).
Too many links.
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” ― George Bernard Shaw
Kuleba Hints Negotiations with Russia May Begin Once Ukraine Forges Peace Coalition
In an interview with the Foreign Policy media outlet, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hinted that peace negotiations with Russia might commence once Ukraine establishes a peace coalition... He outlined two prerequisites for genuine engagement with Russia: battlefield success and the formation of a coalition of like-minded countries...
And I get the feeling Macron's mouth is writing checks that he hopes won't actually be cashed:
France’s Macron doesn’t rule out troops for Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron said he has not ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine if Russia breaks through Ukrainian front lines and the government in Kyiv made such a request... “If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request, which is not the case today, we would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question,” he said. Asked if he stood by comments earlier this year about not excluding the sending of Western troops to Ukraine, Macron said: “Absolutely. As I said, I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out”...
Ukraine may have talks eventually with Russia, intelligence officer says
Ukraine will at some point have to enter into talks with Russia to bring an end to their more than two-year-old war, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said in an interview published on Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly ruled out talks with the Kremlin, and a decree he issued after Russia formally annexed four Ukrainian regions in 2022 deems negotiations "impossible". But Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukraine's HUR military intelligence directorate, told the Economist magazine that talks would eventually be needed, as would be the case with any war...
Why Switzerland’s Ukraine peace summit might struggle with no-shows concerns
With preparation for a Ukraine Peace Summit in June underway, concerns remain that the talks may lack strong participation from the Global South and from China in particular... Diplomats involved in the preparations say there are fears the summit threatens to become a Western affair, without strong Global South participation...
Italian defense minister calls for truce in Ukraine, peace negotiations with Russia
The West should seek a truce in Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview with the newspaper Il Messaggero published on May 6. The comments indicated a change of heart from Crosetto, who said in November 2023 that the "time is not yet ripe" for ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine...
Russia warns Britain it could strike back after Cameron remark on Ukraine
Russia warned Britain on Monday that if British weapons were used by Ukraine to strike Russian territory then Moscow could hit back at British military installations and equipment both inside Ukraine and elsewhere... Russia's foreign ministry said the Cameron remarks recognised that Britain was now de facto a part of the conflict and contradicted an earlier assurance that long-range weapons given to Ukraine would not be used against Russia...
UK’s Cameron pitched radical Ukraine peace deal to Trump
Britain insisted its position on a Ukrainian peace deal has not changed after a report that the country’s top diplomat floated an agreement with Russia in a meeting with Donald Trump... According to the [Sunday Times] source, Cameron asked Trump: “What are the best conditions in which you as president can make a deal in January? It’s both sides holding their lines and paying a price for that”...
NATO ally endorses China's Ukraine peace plan as Beijing applauds 'model' of European diplomacy
The visit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Hungarian President Viktor Orban ended with glowing praise from both parties as Xi labeled his counterpart a "model" for diplomatic relations with Europe, while Orban endorsed Beijing’s Ukraine peace plan...
Hungary vetoes Council of Europe resolution supporting Ukraine's peace formula
Hungary has vetoed a resolution in the Council of Europe to officially recognise and support President Volodymyr Zelensky's 10-point peace formula, the country's foreign affairs minister said on May 17. In a post on Facebook, Peter Szijjarto said that "other plans" had been proposed by others but were not being considered by the Council, and the exclusion of Russia from the body meant peace negotiations could not work. The minister did not specify which other plans he was referring to...
Pretty sure he's referring to China's plan; see above (post #1156).
Related to negotiations:
What Does Putin Really Want in Ukraine?
More than two years after he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to insist that all his goals will be achieved. He has not, however, spelled them out in great detail, leaving himself considerable wiggle room to declare victory depending on battlefield developments. Broadly speaking, his goals fall into three baskets: weakening or disrupting Ukraine’s ties with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), stymieing Ukrainian nationalism, and expanding territorial gains...
Zelenskyy pushes allies for direct involvement in Ukraine’s war with Russia
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is pushing partners to get more directly involved in the war by helping to intercept Russian missiles and allowing his country to use Western weapons against military equipment amassing near the border. “It’s a question of will, but everyone says a word that sounds the same in every language: everyone is scared of escalation,” the 46-year-old leader told the Reuters news agency in Kyiv on Monday...
Zelenskyy insists NATO can shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that assistance from the North Atlantic Alliance in shooting down Russian missiles over the territory of Ukraine would help compensate for Kyiv's deficit in air defence and would not involve NATO in the war... "You can't provide that right now? OK ... returning to the planes that you have on the territory of neighbouring NATO countries: raise them up ... shoot down targets, protect civilians."
