Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Russia pounded Ukraine’s energy facilities Tuesday with its biggest barrage of missiles yet, striking targets across the country and causing widespread blackouts, and a U.S. official said missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, where two people were killed.

A defiant Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy shook his fist and declared: “We will survive everything.”

Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information from a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation. But Mueller said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.”

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Ukraine is a pretty big country. This is not a small piece of turf. The probability of Russia achieving its strategic object ebbs of overrunning Ukraine, the probability of that happening is close to zero. I suppose theoretically it is possible, maybe, I guess, but I do not see it happening militarily. But they do currently occupy about 20% of Ukraine. They occupy a piece of ground that is about 900 kilometers long. Probably about 75 or 80 kilometers deep. They invaded this country with 180,000 troops and multiple field armies. They have also done this mobilization. They have reinforced and they still have significant Russian power inside Ukraine. Ukraine has had great success in the defense. They did a tremendous job. It is incredible what they are able to deal. Then they went on the offense of beginning of September. They had great success and greater success as you just witnessed. Physically, geographically relatively small compared to the whole. The military task of militarily kicking the Russians physically out of Ukraine is a very difficult task. And it will not happen the next couple of weeks unless the Russian army completely collapses which is unlikely. In terms of probability, the probability of a Ukrainian victory defined as kicking the Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they claim is Crimea, the probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily. Politically, there may be a political solution where politically the Russians withdraw. That is possible. You want to negotiate from a position of strength, Russian right now is on its back. They are suffering tremendously. Though the leadership is really hurting bad. They have lost a lot of casualties killed and wounded. I will not quote exact numbers. They have lost a tremendous amount of their tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. They have lost a lot of their fourth and fifth generation fighters. The military is really hurting bad. You want to negotiate at a time where you are at your strength and your opponent is at weakness. It is possible that maybe there will be a political solution. All I am saying is there is a possibility for it. That is all I am saying.