US Company Signs Deal for Syrian Oil

Beware a Russian 'October Surprise' in Syria

In the wake of U.S. foreign policy success through the Israel peace deals with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, America's enemies may try to upend Washington's foreign policy in another part of the Middle East. Iran and Russia could set their sights on Syria, hoping to exploit President Donald Trump's desire to end foreign wars. The White House could judge that, after the peace deals with Israel, Bahrain and the UAE, now is the time to bring the troops home from the war on ISIS and pull the plug on America's involvement in Syria. Moscow is hoping for such an October surprise scenario...

Would Trump, seeing pressure in Iraq and Syria, decide to leave Syria? He already decided three times, in the spring of 2018, in December 2018 and in October 2019. October 2020 may be the final straw. This would be a mistake for U.S. strategy. America must decide to leave at a time of its choosing and not let Iran, Russia or others fill the vacuum left behind.

Syria's Assad says Russian bases in his country keep balance of power in region

AMMAN (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al Assad said the continued presence of Russia’s major naval and air bases in his country help counter the influence of Western powers in the region as the battle to crush insurgents was winding down.

In an interview with Russia’s Ministry of Defence TV channel Zvezda on the fifth anniversary of Moscow’s intervention in Syria that tipped the conflict in his favour, Assad said Russia’s two main bases were important to counter the West’s military presence in the region...

Syria Is Still Trying to Use Chemical Weapons

Syria continues to obtain components for its chemical weapons and missile programs, the Trump administration said in a report to Congress this year, as Bashar al-Assad’s regime seeks to restore capabilities eroded by a near-decade-long civil war and successive U.S. airstrikes.

The finding—confirmed to Foreign Policy by current and former U.S. officials, as well as diplomatic sources who spoke on condition of anonymity—comes as current and former Trump administration officials worry that a potential buildup of missile production facilities inside Syria could threaten Israel.

“Despite having completed destruction of Syria’s declared [chemical weapons] production facilities and stockpile of [chemical weapons] agent, the Assad regime continues to pursue chemical weapons and has used both chlorine and sarin on a number of occasions over the course of the conflict,” the State Department reported to Congress this year in a document obtained by Foreign Policy. “We believe the Assad regime is seeking to reestablish strategic weapons production capabilities it lost in the course of the conflict and we continue to see Syrian procurement activity in support of its chemical weapons and missile programs”...

Outgoing Syria Envoy Admits Hiding US Troop Numbers; Praises Trump’s Mideast Record

Four years after signing the now-infamous “Never Trump” letter condemning then-presidential candidate Donald Trump as a danger to America, retiring diplomat Jim Jeffrey is recommending that the incoming Biden administration stick with Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East.

But even as he praises the president’s support of what he describes as a successful “realpolitik” approach to the region, he acknowledges that his team routinely misled senior leaders about troop levels in Syria.

“We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview. The actual number of troops in northeast Syria is “a lot more than” the roughly two hundred troops Trump initially agreed to leave there in 2019...

“What Syria withdrawal? There was never a Syria withdrawal,” Jeffrey said. “When the situation in northeast Syria had been fairly stable after we defeated ISIS, [Trump] was inclined to pull out. In each case, we then decided to come up with five better arguments for why we needed to stay. And we succeeded both times. That’s the story...”

If Jeffrey is complimentary of the Trump administration’s overall approach to the Middle East, he is equally sanguine about the incoming Biden administration.

“If [U.S. allies in the Middle East] had to pick somebody else to come, it would be Joe Biden,” Jeffrey said. “I can’t predict how Joe Biden would act [but] of all of his decisions that I was involved in, and there were many, he is more of a transactional guy by his nature..."

Al Tanf garrison: America’s strategic baggage in the Middle East

America’s presence in the Middle East holds hidden costs, unknown risks, and nominal benefits in maintaining the status quo. The “pivot to Asia” under the Obama administration required balancing how to secure U.S. interests in the Middle East with fewer resources. The U.S. must consider actions of the past, specifically the strategic baggage that has accrued over years of growing military commitments. One key case study in strategic baggage is in Syria.

“Strategic baggage” refers to a military commitment that has outlasted its utility. This occurs when, on balance, the perception of the costs is either too high, benefits too low, or risks too great to continue. The build-up of baggage impacts other choices regarding global priorities, goals, and allocation of military forces. In this way, it hampers America’s ability to make strategic choices moving forward, because we are wedded to the past and cannot wipe the slate clean.

As the U.S. tries to focus on great power competition, we have baggage in the Middle East we should let go. For example, U.S. strategic objectives in Syria often appear confused and the military role is not clear. As Central Command commander, General Kenneth McKenzie, has said: “There’s no viable military solution to the conflict in Syria.” Yet, without a clear policy regarding U.S. interests — and more importantly, a realistic path forward — we are left with an open-ended military commitment. Thus, in trying to balance competing regional and global interests, we end up maintaining the status quo. An example of this type of strategic baggage, which should be jettisoned, is Al Tanf garrison in Syria. At this point, Al Tanf is strategic baggage because maintaining it outstrips most regional benefits and impacts availability of military assets for other missions...

Trump administration helped GOP donors get Syria oil deal

The State Department’s special envoy for Syria at a congressional hearing on Wednesday admitted to helping Republican donors score a deal for Syrian oil.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R–S.C.) first announced in July that U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led forces had granted an American company a deal to “to modernize the oil fields” in areas of northeastern Syria guarded by U.S. troops.

Special Envoy Joel Rayburn confirmed during Wednesday’s House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that the company is Delta Crescent Energy, a little-known firm cofounded by several people who have donated to Republican causes, including Graham’s own campaign.

Rayburn also admitted that the Trump administration had actually pushed for Delta Crescent Energy — and no other companies — to receive permission to exploit Syrian oil...