^ If that guy hasn't fallen out of a window by next week, maybe it means Putin, et al are starting to look for an exit (they've also played down Sweden and Finland joining NATO).
Russia’s operations ‘shrinking’ in eastern Ukraine, says Pentagon
Russia’s operations in eastern Ukraine are narrowing in scope, the Pentagon assessed on Wednesday. With the war approaching its 12th week and Moscow taking heavy casualties and struggling to make major gains, a senior US defence official said there was a shift in Russian strategy. “Over the last days and even more than a week or so, you're starting to see Russian offensive operations become smaller in their size and scale,” the official said. “You're seeing their objectives become more localised … it's just sort of a shrinking of their objectives, and their goals"...
This probably makes a settlement much more likely, i.e., Russian forces (and presumably Putin) realize options are limited and dwindling. Question is what is Ukraine's perception of what they think they can achieve (e.g., do they think they can retake Crimea, etc.); that will also influence how much longer this conflict lasts.
Russia’s operations ‘shrinking’ in eastern Ukraine, says Pentagon
Russia’s operations in eastern Ukraine are narrowing in scope, the Pentagon assessed on Wednesday. With the war approaching its 12th week and Moscow taking heavy casualties and struggling to make major gains, a senior US defence official said there was a shift in Russian strategy. “Over the last days and even more than a week or so, you're starting to see Russian offensive operations become smaller in their size and scale,” the official said. “You're seeing their objectives become more localised … it's just sort of a shrinking of their objectives, and their goals"...
This probably makes a settlement much more likely, i.e., Russian forces (and presumably Putin) realize options are limited and dwindling. Question is what is Ukraine's perception of what they think they can achieve (e.g., do they think they can retake Crimea, etc.); that will also influence how much longer this conflict lasts.
Thats a very good point...will ukraine push to take back what was once theirs, and also try to get russia to rebuild all that it has destroyed as one extreme end of the spectrum...or do they just end it, and ukraine is left with a decades long mess to clean up...
arguably, russia, can only get back to a degree in some of the graces of the west, if it does something to help rebuild what it destroyed...
but we all keep forgetting, russia has a gdp between texas and florida...imagine texas or florida assuming responsibility to rebuild a country like ukraine and all the cities destroyed...not economically possible...maybe russia sells oil at a reduced price for many years into the future???
putin would never go for it...but an astute political rival would float this, get him ousted and make good on the promise...and get russia back into the fold...
The war in Ukraine can only be resolved through "diplomacy", President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. Speaking on national TV, he suggested his country could be victorious against Russia on the battlefield. However, he added that the war could only come to a conclusive halt "at the negotiating table"...
Russia’s lead negotiator in peace talks with Ukraine said on Sunday that Moscow is willing to resume negotiations, but Kyiv has to make the first step, state news agency TASS reported. “For our part, we are ready to continue the dialogue. But I will emphasize once again: the ball for the continuation of peace talks is in Ukraine’s court. Freezing the talks is entirely Ukraine's initiative,” Vladimir Medinsky said...
No negotiations until Russia gets back to reality - Podolyak
Podolyak said that the negotiations would be on hold until Russian returns to properly addressing facts, including the war crimes its soldiers have committed in Ukraine. Russian diplomacy should respect the official Ukrainian position on the war and the paths to resolve it, he said. Russia should understand Ukrainian view of how “we should exit this war,” he added...
Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev resigns, blasts war in Ukraine
A veteran Russian diplomat to the United Nations office in Geneva has handed in his resignation and sent a statement to foreign colleagues criticising the “aggressive war unleashed” by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. Boris Bondarev, who worked as a counsellor at Russia’s permanent mission to the UN in Geneva, told the Reuters news agency: “I went to the mission like any other Monday morning and I forwarded my resignation letter and I walked out”...
Turkiye in talks with Russia, Ukraine to set up wheat export corridor
Turkiye is in negotiations with Russia and Ukraine to open a corridor via the Bosphorus for grain exports from Ukraine, a senior Turkish official told Reuters today. Ukraine's Black Sea ports have been blocked since Russia invaded in February and more than 20 million tonnes of grain are stuck in silos there... "Turkiye is negotiating with both Russia and Ukraine for the export of grains from Ukraine," the official said, requesting anonymity because the talks were confidential...
Zelenskyy: Russia must pull back before negotiations
Ukraine’s president said Wednesday he is willing to restore diplomatic talks if Russian troops retreat from Ukraine. Russia has blockaded the Black Sea port at Odesa, so Ukraine is trying to export grain over land to ease global grain prices. Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces will continue to try to recover Russian-controlled territory...
Deeper trenches, better use of radar, home-made drones, mobile networking, and, most of all, Ukrainian ingenuity...
...
When Russia invaded Ukraine back in 2014, Ukraine's army was simply outmatched. Since then, Ukraine has had to figure out creative ways to defend itself and fight back, from low-tech to high-tech.
You could call them 'war hacks.' And many seem to be working.
Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges has seen Ukraine's military improve first-hand. He became the commander of U.S. Army Europe shortly after that first Russian incursion.
As American troops helped train the Ukrainians, he was immediately struck by their tech savvy when the U.S. provided radar equipment that detected incoming Russian artillery fire.
...
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” ― George Bernard Shaw
Retired Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton says that if Ukraine doesn't take the opportunity to withdraw from a pocket near the key city of Severodonetsk in eastern Ukraine, they risk losing a large part of their military.
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” ― George Bernard Shaw
Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push Black Sea Grain Deal
Turkey and Russia have reached a tentative deal to restart shipments of Ukraine’s agricultural products from a key Black Sea port, but Kyiv remains skeptical of the proposed pact, according to people familiar with the discussions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has offered military help to clear mines off the coast of Odesa and escort grain ships but Ukraine has yet to endorse the plan, worried that removing defenses could leave the vital port open to Russian attack, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public. Turkey hopes that a United Nations endorsement of the proposal could allay security concerns, the people said...
Russia says no agreement reached with Turkey on Ukrainian grain sale
The Kremlin said on Thursday that no agreement had been reached to sell grain from Ukraine to Turkey - which Ukraine says Russia has stolen from it - but that work on a deal was continuing... Asked if any deal had been reached to sell this grain to Turkey or a Middle Eastern country, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "So far no agreements have been reached, work is continuing." He said he could not confirm Balitsky's statement that the grain had been sent by rail to Crimea, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014...
Ukraine fears a long war might cause West to lose interest
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grinds into its fourth month, officials in Kyiv have expressed fears that the specter of “war fatigue” could erode the West’s resolve to help the country push back Moscow’s aggression. The U.S. and its allies have given billions of dollars in weaponry to Ukraine. Europe has taken in millions of people displaced by the war. And there has been unprecedent unity in post-World War II Europe in imposing sanctions on President Vladimir Putin and his country. But as the shock of the Feb. 24 invasion subsides, analysts say the Kremlin could exploit a dragged-out, entrenched conflict and possible waning interest among Western powers that might lead to pressuring Ukraine into a settlement...
US Pledges More Weapons to Ukraine, But Milley Warns ‘The Numbers Clearly Favor The Russians’
“The Ukrainians are fighting them street by street house by house,” Milley said. “And it's not a done deal. There are no inevitabilities in war. War takes many, many turns. So I wouldn't say it's an inevitability. But I would say that the numbers clearly favor the Russians.”
Ukraine’s vastly outgunned soldiers ‘now deserting front line’ as Russians advance
Ukrainian forces are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian counterparts, according to intelligence that paints a bleak picture of the situation on the front line... The grinding battle in eastern Ukraine is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”, the report says... Meanwhile, the Kyiv government’s bargaining position is being weakened by a growing disparity in the number of prisoners being held by each side...
Ukraine suffering up to 1,000 casualties per day in Donbas, official says
Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday. The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian troops were being killed daily as Russia stepped up its Donbas offensive. Over the past two weeks that number has climbed significantly according to David Arakhamia, who leads Ukraine's negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky's closest advisers...
Regardless of how many weapons we pour into Ukraine, there's only so many bodies they can throw at Russia in Eastern Ukraine. When negotiations get serious (and this will end with some negotiated settlement), Ukraine will be in a worse position than it was a few weeks ago.
Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief
The West must prepare to continue supporting Ukraine in a war lasting for years, Nato's chief has warned. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the costs of war were high, but the price of letting Moscow achieve its military goals was even greater. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also warned of a longer-term conflict... "We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild...
After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Predict the War’s Path
When Russia shifted its military campaign to focus on eastern Ukraine this spring, senior officials in the Biden administration said the next four to six weeks of fighting would determine the war’s eventual path. That time has passed, and officials say the picture is increasingly clear: Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons...
Will any free pro democracy country trust Russia for the next two generations?
What's a pro democracy country?
But it also doesn't come down to trust either. It's about interests.
Why do we deal with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, UAE, etc.? (And that's just recent history).
Same with Russia. "Pro-democracy" countries will deal with Russia the same way - and for the same reasons - they deal with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc. Because they see it in their interests (immediate or long term) to do so.
I was hoping for the completely ridiculous notion of Russia getting kicked out but realize that's not happening and the nasty killing that's going is unsustainable, especially for UK. They did quite well and stopped the quick takeover of the country but this war of attrition through artillery weighs heavily in Russia's favor. Factor in that the belligerent player is unfazed by body counts and it's time to deal, even with concessions. Stop the killing while you still have some leverage. Fight again another day.
Been hoping this day wasn't coming but here it is. :/
