Post by Odysseus on Aug 2, 2020 0:52:47 GMT
Answer seems to be, he's trying...
The New York Times is leading today with a story about possible misuse of the USPS to suppress the November vote and help Donald Trump's reelection. Trump has long complained about the Postal Service because he falsely believes that it is undercharging Amazon, thus boosting Amazon's profits and thus the value of the stock owned by Jeff Bezos, who also owns his nemesis, The Washington Post. Actually, package delivery is one of the few areas the USPS makes a profit. If Trump were really concerned about it operating more like a business, he would demand that it drastically raise postage rates for letters in big rural states like Wyoming, Montana, and the Dakotas, where the USPS loses millions of dollars. Of course that is where his voters live, so that wouldn't be so popular.
Nevertheless, Trump is cunning enough to turn a lemon into lemonade. The new postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, is a major campaign donor. In fact, he gave so much money that he is entitled to a twofer: In addition to the PG appointment, his wife, Aldona Wos, has been nominated to be ambassador to Canada. No, make that is a threefer: DeJoy used to be CEO of a company, XPO, that provides extensive transport services to the Postal Service and he still owns somewhere between $25 million and $50 million in XPO stock, putting him in a position to do some lucrative self dealing, making him a smart businessman in Trump's eyes.
DeJoy is working to make the USPS more efficient by eliminating overtime pay for postal workers. The effect of this move is to slow mail delivery. In the past, workers would continue working past the end of their shifts to get mail delivered on time. Now the mail will just sit there for a day or two extra. But if there is a flood of mail in, say, October, the mail (specifically, absentee ballots) may sit around for many days before it is delivered. Just coincidentally, in many states, ballots received after Election Day are not counted. That is the law there, so when (not if) there are lawsuits, the courts will rule that those ballots may not be counted because the state law is perfectly clear. Those laws might be changed in the states where Democrats have trifectas, but they don't have them in any swing state. In fact, Republicans have a trifecta in two swing states (Arizona and Florida).
Kim Wyman (R), the secretary of state in Washington, where the election is entirely by mail, said: "election officials are very concerned, if the post office is reducing service, that we will be able to get ballots to people in time." Wendy Fields, the executive director of the Democracy initiative, a coalition of voting and civil rights groups, said that Trump was "deliberately orchestrating suppression and using the post office as a tool to do it." In his eulogy for John Lewis, Barack Obama said that Trump was continuing to attack voting rights "with surgical precision, even undermining the Postal Service in the run-up to an election that is going to be dependent on mailed-in ballots so people don't get sick." So, Trump's plan is not much of a secret.
Another thing that is very small but could become a big issue is postmarks. Many states have laws saying that absentee ballots may be counted only if they are postmarked on or before Election Day. Some states are using business reply envelopes to allow voters to return their ballots for free. However, these envelopes are generally not postmarked at all, meaning states with "postmark" laws are free to throw them out (maybe even are required to throw them out). And DeJoy could go a step further if he wants to. He could make an "innocent" announcement in October that due to his concern that ballots will not be delivered on time and his reverence for democracy, he is eliminating the postmark on all mail for a month to make sure ballots are delivered quickly. When some reporter points out that this move will invalidate millions of ballots, he will undoubtedly suggest that states change their laws to accept any ballot arriving within a week of Election Day. Of course, that won't happen in states where Republicans have the power to block it.
Democrats are not in a totally hopeless position though. Congress has broad authority to regulate federal elections and when federal law and state law collide, federal law generally wins. The Democrats could put a provision in the next coronavirus relief bill that provides tens of billions of dollars for the USPS and possibly even mandates that mail must be delivered within, say, 3 days. It could also have a provision saying that any ballot for a federal election that was received within a week of Election Day is valid and must be counted. Needless to say, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) would oppose this for all he is worth. He might even be willing to kill the relief bill over that, although the optics might not be so good. Of course, the Democrats might not be willing a risk having millions of people fall into poverty and become homeless, so they might not be willing to fight for a provision like this.
There are a few other ways this could plausibly rebound on Trump. First, as we've noted many times this year, it is not at all clear that Democrats will have a vote-by-mail advantage this year. Toying with the USPS could deprive lots of his voters of their vote, especially since a lot of them are older and/or live in remote settings without polling places. Second, engaging in obvious chicanery to deprive people of their vote can make them more determined to poke you in the eye and make sure their vote gets counted. Third, and probably most significantly, if Barack Obama and other prominent folks are on TV throughout the months of September and October saying "Get your ballot in the mail now to make sure it's counted," a lot of people will do it. At that point, their choices will be locked in, and there will be less potential for Trump to improve his standing. In other words, it may be bad news for a guy who needs every possible day in hopes the economy rebounds and/or progress is made on a COVID-19 vaccine.
Nevertheless, Trump is cunning enough to turn a lemon into lemonade. The new postmaster general, Louis DeJoy, is a major campaign donor. In fact, he gave so much money that he is entitled to a twofer: In addition to the PG appointment, his wife, Aldona Wos, has been nominated to be ambassador to Canada. No, make that is a threefer: DeJoy used to be CEO of a company, XPO, that provides extensive transport services to the Postal Service and he still owns somewhere between $25 million and $50 million in XPO stock, putting him in a position to do some lucrative self dealing, making him a smart businessman in Trump's eyes.
DeJoy is working to make the USPS more efficient by eliminating overtime pay for postal workers. The effect of this move is to slow mail delivery. In the past, workers would continue working past the end of their shifts to get mail delivered on time. Now the mail will just sit there for a day or two extra. But if there is a flood of mail in, say, October, the mail (specifically, absentee ballots) may sit around for many days before it is delivered. Just coincidentally, in many states, ballots received after Election Day are not counted. That is the law there, so when (not if) there are lawsuits, the courts will rule that those ballots may not be counted because the state law is perfectly clear. Those laws might be changed in the states where Democrats have trifectas, but they don't have them in any swing state. In fact, Republicans have a trifecta in two swing states (Arizona and Florida).
Kim Wyman (R), the secretary of state in Washington, where the election is entirely by mail, said: "election officials are very concerned, if the post office is reducing service, that we will be able to get ballots to people in time." Wendy Fields, the executive director of the Democracy initiative, a coalition of voting and civil rights groups, said that Trump was "deliberately orchestrating suppression and using the post office as a tool to do it." In his eulogy for John Lewis, Barack Obama said that Trump was continuing to attack voting rights "with surgical precision, even undermining the Postal Service in the run-up to an election that is going to be dependent on mailed-in ballots so people don't get sick." So, Trump's plan is not much of a secret.
Another thing that is very small but could become a big issue is postmarks. Many states have laws saying that absentee ballots may be counted only if they are postmarked on or before Election Day. Some states are using business reply envelopes to allow voters to return their ballots for free. However, these envelopes are generally not postmarked at all, meaning states with "postmark" laws are free to throw them out (maybe even are required to throw them out). And DeJoy could go a step further if he wants to. He could make an "innocent" announcement in October that due to his concern that ballots will not be delivered on time and his reverence for democracy, he is eliminating the postmark on all mail for a month to make sure ballots are delivered quickly. When some reporter points out that this move will invalidate millions of ballots, he will undoubtedly suggest that states change their laws to accept any ballot arriving within a week of Election Day. Of course, that won't happen in states where Republicans have the power to block it.
Democrats are not in a totally hopeless position though. Congress has broad authority to regulate federal elections and when federal law and state law collide, federal law generally wins. The Democrats could put a provision in the next coronavirus relief bill that provides tens of billions of dollars for the USPS and possibly even mandates that mail must be delivered within, say, 3 days. It could also have a provision saying that any ballot for a federal election that was received within a week of Election Day is valid and must be counted. Needless to say, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) would oppose this for all he is worth. He might even be willing to kill the relief bill over that, although the optics might not be so good. Of course, the Democrats might not be willing a risk having millions of people fall into poverty and become homeless, so they might not be willing to fight for a provision like this.
There are a few other ways this could plausibly rebound on Trump. First, as we've noted many times this year, it is not at all clear that Democrats will have a vote-by-mail advantage this year. Toying with the USPS could deprive lots of his voters of their vote, especially since a lot of them are older and/or live in remote settings without polling places. Second, engaging in obvious chicanery to deprive people of their vote can make them more determined to poke you in the eye and make sure their vote gets counted. Third, and probably most significantly, if Barack Obama and other prominent folks are on TV throughout the months of September and October saying "Get your ballot in the mail now to make sure it's counted," a lot of people will do it. At that point, their choices will be locked in, and there will be less potential for Trump to improve his standing. In other words, it may be bad news for a guy who needs every possible day in hopes the economy rebounds and/or progress is made on a COVID-19 vaccine.