Post by Maestro on Nov 10, 2024 13:56:15 GMT
I've mentioned something along these lines before, but the past two years has made it relevant once again.
I argue that for the past century the Vice-Presidency has proven to not be a great stepping-stone toward a successful presidency.
Consider all of the VP's in that time period who have made the attempt.
Harris - Lost
Pence - Tried and failed to get the nomination.
Biden - Won and was then drummed out of a second attempt by his party and a voting public severely skeptical of his cognitive abilities.
Quayle - Tried and failed to get the nomination
Gore - Lost
George H. W. Bush - Won his first attempt and lost his second.
Mondale - Lost
Ford - Lost his first presidential election (from the presidency).
Nixon - Lost when running as the incumbent VP. Then won twice (notably the only one on this list to do so) but failed to finish his second term, resigning in disgrace.
Humphrey - This one isn't really fair because we had two candidates running against each other who both served as Vice-Presidents. One of them had to lose. Still, when given a choice between two Vice-Presidents, the public chose the guy who was not the incumbent.
Johnson - Won his first election (from the presidency) but declined to run again due to intense public dissatisfaction with his presidency and significant primary challenges from his own party.
Truman - Finished most of FDR's final term and won his first election from the presidency. Chose not to run again in 1952 for a mixture of factors. Although 22nd Amendment would prevent future presidents from running again in those circumstances, he was exempted from it and could have done so. He chose not to, citing the fact that he believed in the two-term tradition and he had very nearly served two terms. Still, it must be noted that during the 1952 election his approval rating was in the 20's. The public had clearly turned against him and the fact that the Republican won that election was further evidence of the public's dissatisfaction with him.
Coolidge - The last candidate on this list of VPs from the last 100 years. Like Truman, he also won his first election from the presidency and declined to run again when he could have done so. And he gave a similar reason, stating that 10 years (how long he would be in office at the end of his third term) was too long for someone to be in office. Unlike Truman, his party still won that election. This is important, because (with the exceptions of Quayle and Pence who did not get the nomination) Coolidge is the only name on this list who saw the next elected President come from his own party.
Given this track record, I think it would be good if the public and the two parties quit acting as if the nomination is something that should be handed to Vice-Presidents (especially the incumbent). The voters do not owe sitting or former Vice-Presidents the nomination, especially given the track record of Vice-Presidents over the last century.
I would also argue that candidates aspiring to the presidency should seek an alternate route through which to attain that goal.
[EDIT]
Forgot about Pence's primary run. He's been added now.
