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Post by RinsePrius on Oct 28, 2024 14:00:18 GMT
If you check out the betting markets you will see they say Trump has the edge. www.newsweek.com/nearly-everyone-betting-donald-trump-win-election-1974826www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/kamala-harris-presidential-election-odds-politics/You get the idea. The expectation that Harris wins is quite low and the odds reflect that. Here's where the MAGA Alpha comes in (alpha is a finance term that means excess or above benchmark returns). This tip can make you big $, providing the MAGA view is correct. If MAGA is correct and the Dems hacked the 2020 election, there's no reason to think they won't do it again, especially since it worked so well the last time and no one got into any trouble. There's a high probability that the forces that aligned in the universe to put Biden into office instead of Trump will work again to the same effect for Kamala. If so, these betting markets are lopsided and biased, reflecting the hopes and dreams of their young male user base. Making a large bet on the other side, for Kamala, ought to be highly profitable given this set up. *Not financial advice*
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petep
Legend
Posts: 26,013
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Post by petep on Oct 28, 2024 19:20:45 GMT
If you check out the betting markets you will see they say Trump has the edge. www.newsweek.com/nearly-everyone-betting-donald-trump-win-election-1974826www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/kamala-harris-presidential-election-odds-politics/You get the idea. The expectation that Harris wins is quite low and the odds reflect that. Here's where the MAGA Alpha comes in (alpha is a finance term that means excess or above benchmark returns). This tip can make you big $, providing the MAGA view is correct. If MAGA is correct and the Dems hacked the 2020 election, there's no reason to think they won't do it again, especially since it worked so well the last time and no one got into any trouble. There's a high probability that the forces that aligned in the universe to put Biden into office instead of Trump will work again to the same effect for Kamala. If so, these betting markets are lopsided and biased, reflecting the hopes and dreams of their young male user base. Making a large bet on the other side, for Kamala, ought to be highly profitable given this set up. *Not financial advice* That same group has Harris winning popular vote and trump winning electoral. By almost the same : reversed proportions you listed.
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Post by rabbitreborn on Oct 28, 2024 21:54:20 GMT
It’s an arbitrage opportunity. Bet it all on black-ish.
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