Post by VYPR on Oct 18, 2024 1:03:55 GMT
The correlation between the Dow’s year-to-date return through mid-October and the incumbent party’s chances of winning are significant at the 97% confidence level.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s strong year-to-date return translates to a 72% probability that the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, will win the presidential election in November.
Just two months ago the Dow was assigning a 64% probability to a Harris victory (as I wrote at the time). And when I devoted a column in May to this subject, the probability of a Democratic victory was judged to be 58%. The increases in probabilities since then are due to the stock market’s strength; there’s a statistically significant correlation between the Dow’s election-year performance and the incumbent political party’s chances of retaining the White House.
A 72% probability of a Democratic victory is much higher than the 43% chance that the electronic futures markets currently place (according to the aggregator site Election Betting Odds).
www.marketwatch.com/story/this-presidential-candidate-is-still-the-stock-markets-bet-to-win-the-election-4e0a1b76
The Dow Jones Industrial Average’s strong year-to-date return translates to a 72% probability that the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, will win the presidential election in November.
Just two months ago the Dow was assigning a 64% probability to a Harris victory (as I wrote at the time). And when I devoted a column in May to this subject, the probability of a Democratic victory was judged to be 58%. The increases in probabilities since then are due to the stock market’s strength; there’s a statistically significant correlation between the Dow’s election-year performance and the incumbent political party’s chances of retaining the White House.
A 72% probability of a Democratic victory is much higher than the 43% chance that the electronic futures markets currently place (according to the aggregator site Election Betting Odds).
www.marketwatch.com/story/this-presidential-candidate-is-still-the-stock-markets-bet-to-win-the-election-4e0a1b76