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Post by RinsePrius on Nov 2, 2024 14:18:30 GMT
Yes, they are but we don't want deflation. That would be worse. I think it's a win to see the inflation rate approach target. what all seem to ignore is a) the rate of wage increases relative to inflation and b) the type of jobs being added Manufacturing jobs for example have a substantially greater economic multiplier (see IMPLAN) than service type jobs.... The other issues is how many eligible (working age) people who have dropped out of the workforce denominator. Simply look at total number working, and IRS tax receipts per capita and you can see what a disaster the last several years have been. If wages were fine relative to inflation you would not see so much of the population bitching so loudly about prices...you would also not see so many states struggling with budgets and increasing taxes. No argument from me on the importance of considering real wages and the quality of jobs, labor force participation, and more nuanced metrics. Real wages are flat but manufacturing jobs are above their pre-pandemic peak under Biden. www.factcheck.org/2024/09/trump-vs-harris-on-u-s-manufacturing/Labor force participation peaked under Trump at 63.3%, and during the pandemic it fell off a cliff and bottomed at 60.2%. Under Biden it has recovered the 62.6% level. We are not at pre-pandemic levels but things definitely moved in the right direction. I do expect employment to cool off in the next 12-18 months but that's going to happen regardless of who is elected pres. Normal people look at this and say "we've come a long way, and still have some work to do. Let's give ourselves some grace." |
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petep
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Post by petep on Nov 2, 2024 14:42:31 GMT
what all seem to ignore is a) the rate of wage increases relative to inflation and b) the type of jobs being added Manufacturing jobs for example have a substantially greater economic multiplier (see IMPLAN) than service type jobs.... The other issues is how many eligible (working age) people who have dropped out of the workforce denominator. Simply look at total number working, and IRS tax receipts per capita and you can see what a disaster the last several years have been. If wages were fine relative to inflation you would not see so much of the population bitching so loudly about prices...you would also not see so many states struggling with budgets and increasing taxes. No argument from me on the importance of considering real wages and the quality of jobs, labor force participation, and more nuanced metrics. Real wages are flat but manufacturing jobs are above their pre-pandemic peak under Biden. www.factcheck.org/2024/09/trump-vs-harris-on-u-s-manufacturing/Labor force participation peaked under Trump at 63.3%, and during the pandemic it fell off a cliff and bottomed at 60.2%. Under Biden it has recovered the 62.6% level. We are not at pre-pandemic levels but things definitely moved in the right direction. I do expect employment to cool off in the next 12-18 months but that's going to happen regardless of who is elected pres. Normal people look at this and say "we've come a long way, and still have some work to do. Let's give ourselves some grace." What's frustrating to me, is that I'd estimate 75% of the pain we felt and continue to feel from covid was avoidable. It was a direct result of bad policy decisions. Whether extended and unnecessary shutdowns in many states and cities, while others were open and fine....combined with printing money like crazy and so much went to fraud - its estimated the last biden harris 1.3T infrastructure bill over 400B was lost to fraud....you must understand how bad that is....and so much went to pork...it's hard not to see that the shutdown was used as an excuse to spend If you look at mfg job additions....I believe obama added around 150k during his second term, trump added about 350k in 3 years up till covid and biden has added a net of around 150k.... harris keeps claiming 750-800k mfg jobs added under biden harris, but all experts agree that most all were just returning to work jobs...and the net has been about 135k added. Adding cvs jobs is not the same as adding a mfg job inside the US. The economic multipliers/benefits of each type job are vastly different. With mfg having a much larger and better effect. |
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Post by RinsePrius on Nov 2, 2024 14:53:45 GMT
No argument from me on the importance of considering real wages and the quality of jobs, labor force participation, and more nuanced metrics. Real wages are flat but manufacturing jobs are above their pre-pandemic peak under Biden. www.factcheck.org/2024/09/trump-vs-harris-on-u-s-manufacturing/Labor force participation peaked under Trump at 63.3%, and during the pandemic it fell off a cliff and bottomed at 60.2%. Under Biden it has recovered the 62.6% level. We are not at pre-pandemic levels but things definitely moved in the right direction. I do expect employment to cool off in the next 12-18 months but that's going to happen regardless of who is elected pres. Normal people look at this and say "we've come a long way, and still have some work to do. Let's give ourselves some grace." What's frustrating to me, is that I'd estimate 75% of the pain we felt and continue to feel from covid was avoidable. It was a direct result of bad policy decisions. Whether extended and unnecessary shutdowns in many states and cities, while others were open and fine....combined with printing money like crazy and so much went to fraud - its estimated the last biden harris 1.3T infrastructure bill over 400B was lost to fraud....you must understand how bad that is....and so much went to pork...it's hard not to see that the shutdown was used as an excuse to spend If you look at mfg job additions....I believe obama added around 150k during his second term, trump added about 350k in 3 years up till covid and biden has added a net of around 150k.... harris keeps claiming 750-800k mfg jobs added under biden harris, but all experts agree that most all were just returning to work jobs...and the net has been about 135k added. Adding cvs jobs is not the same as adding a mfg job inside the US. The economic multipliers/benefits of each type job are vastly different. With mfg having a much larger and better effect. When I read statements like that suggesting that COVID's impact was avoidable, a policy mistake, I have the biggest eye roll the world has ever seen. I need a link to the 400 billion dollar fraud story. My BS detector is red-lining with that claim. Regarding the Biden record on manufacturing jobs, we don't get the luxury of dismissing job creation as mere "returning to work jobs" and then subtracting them as if they didn't count. We are above pre-pandemic manufacturing job levels. That's what matters.    |
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petep
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Post by petep on Nov 2, 2024 20:25:02 GMT
What's frustrating to me, is that I'd estimate 75% of the pain we felt and continue to feel from covid was avoidable. It was a direct result of bad policy decisions. Whether extended and unnecessary shutdowns in many states and cities, while others were open and fine....combined with printing money like crazy and so much went to fraud - its estimated the last biden harris 1.3T infrastructure bill over 400B was lost to fraud....you must understand how bad that is....and so much went to pork...it's hard not to see that the shutdown was used as an excuse to spend If you look at mfg job additions....I believe obama added around 150k during his second term, trump added about 350k in 3 years up till covid and biden has added a net of around 150k.... harris keeps claiming 750-800k mfg jobs added under biden harris, but all experts agree that most all were just returning to work jobs...and the net has been about 135k added. Adding cvs jobs is not the same as adding a mfg job inside the US. The economic multipliers/benefits of each type job are vastly different. With mfg having a much larger and better effect. When I read statements like that suggesting that COVID's impact was avoidable, a policy mistake, I have the biggest eye roll the world has ever seen. I need a link to the 400 billion dollar fraud story. My BS detector is red-lining with that claim. Regarding the Biden record on manufacturing jobs, we don't get the luxury of dismissing job creation as mere "returning to work jobs" and then subtracting them as if they didn't count. We are above pre-pandemic manufacturing job levels. That's what matters. Jesus man. How can you question things that are so widely known? fortune.com/2023/06/12/how-400-billion-covid-19-aid-stolen-wasted-social-security-fraudsters-texas-pastors/You’ll find a thousand other sources to support this. And mfg jobs. Yes. They are above pre pandemic levels. By about 135k after almost 4 years. That’s weak. Trump was up 350k mfg jobs after three years. On the heels of Obama’s 150k mfg jobs after 4 years. Do you understand how bad the last jobs report is. And I’d suggest you look at how many govt jobs were added and you’ll really understand how bad the 12k number is even with govt jobs counted. Horrific. A Biden Harris disaster |
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Post by RinsePrius on Nov 2, 2024 21:15:58 GMT
When I read statements like that suggesting that COVID's impact was avoidable, a policy mistake, I have the biggest eye roll the world has ever seen. I need a link to the 400 billion dollar fraud story. My BS detector is red-lining with that claim. Regarding the Biden record on manufacturing jobs, we don't get the luxury of dismissing job creation as mere "returning to work jobs" and then subtracting them as if they didn't count. We are above pre-pandemic manufacturing job levels. That's what matters. Jesus man. How can you question things that are so widely known? fortune.com/2023/06/12/how-400-billion-covid-19-aid-stolen-wasted-social-security-fraudsters-texas-pastors/You’ll find a thousand other sources to support this. And mfg jobs. Yes. They are above pre pandemic levels. By about 135k after almost 4 years. That’s weak. Trump was up 350k mfg jobs after three years. On the heels of Obama’s 150k mfg jobs after 4 years. Do you understand how bad the last jobs report is. And I’d suggest you look at how many govt jobs were added and you’ll really understand how bad the 12k number is even with govt jobs counted. Horrific. A Biden Harris disaster Now you're moving goal posts. Initially you said 400 billion was stolen from the infrastructure bill and now the story changes to stolen COVID aid. Perhaps that was an innocent mistake. Going back to manufacturing jobs, "in Biden’s first two years in office, there was a gain of 754,000 manufacturing jobs." I do not pretend the latest jobs report is good. Clearly the economy is slowing down, as one would expect to happen with reductions in the $ supply and the Fed's balance sheet. |
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petep
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Post by petep on Nov 2, 2024 22:34:40 GMT
Jesus man. How can you question things that are so widely known? fortune.com/2023/06/12/how-400-billion-covid-19-aid-stolen-wasted-social-security-fraudsters-texas-pastors/You’ll find a thousand other sources to support this. And mfg jobs. Yes. They are above pre pandemic levels. By about 135k after almost 4 years. That’s weak. Trump was up 350k mfg jobs after three years. On the heels of Obama’s 150k mfg jobs after 4 years. Do you understand how bad the last jobs report is. And I’d suggest you look at how many govt jobs were added and you’ll really understand how bad the 12k number is even with govt jobs counted. Horrific. A Biden Harris disaster Now you're moving goal posts. Initially you said 400 billion was stolen from the infrastructure bill and now the story changes to stolen COVID aid. Perhaps that was an innocent mistake. Going back to manufacturing jobs, "in Biden’s first two years in office, there was a gain of 754,000 manufacturing jobs." I do not pretend the latest jobs report is good. Clearly the economy is slowing down, as one would expect to happen with reductions in the $ supply and the Fed's balance sheet. Yes. It was covid aid. 400b And read up. Those were people going back to work. The net gain is generally agreed to be around 135k. Dismal. |
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Post by RinsePrius on Nov 2, 2024 23:56:41 GMT
Now you're moving goal posts. Initially you said 400 billion was stolen from the infrastructure bill and now the story changes to stolen COVID aid. Perhaps that was an innocent mistake. Going back to manufacturing jobs, "in Biden’s first two years in office, there was a gain of 754,000 manufacturing jobs." I do not pretend the latest jobs report is good. Clearly the economy is slowing down, as one would expect to happen with reductions in the $ supply and the Fed's balance sheet. And read up. Those were people going back to work. The net gain is generally agreed to be around 135k. Dismal. You don't get to pretend covid didn't happen. The #'s are what they are. |
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Odysseus
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Post by Odysseus on Nov 3, 2024 2:01:01 GMT
And read up. Those were people going back to work. The net gain is generally agreed to be around 135k. Dismal. You don't get to pretend covid didn't happen. The #'s are what they are.
Petep usually fudges the results.
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petep
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Post by petep on Nov 3, 2024 3:08:56 GMT
And read up. Those were people going back to work. The net gain is generally agreed to be around 135k. Dismal. You don't get to pretend covid didn't happen. The #'s are what they are. You do understand the point. If the govt shuts everything down and 100 people lose jobs. And then then open things back up and 100 people go back to work and 1 new job is added, you cannot claim you added 101 jobs. You added 1 job. Unless you seem to be arguing that when Kamala brags about adding 800,000 jobs, it almost seems the shutdown was intentional so they could count people coming back to work. |
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Post by RinsePrius on Nov 3, 2024 3:13:17 GMT
You don't get to pretend covid didn't happen. The #'s are what they are. You do understand the point. If the govt shuts everything down and 100 people lose jobs. And then then open things back up and 100 people go back to work and 1 new job is added, you cannot claim you added 101 jobs. You added 1 job. Unless you seem to be arguing that when Kamala brags about adding 800,000 jobs, it almost seems the shutdown was intentional so they could count people coming back to work. Oh I get the game you're playing I just think it's silly. |
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bama beau
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Post by bama beau on Nov 3, 2024 3:18:11 GMT
what all seem to ignore is a) the rate of wage increases relative to inflation and b) the type of jobs being added Manufacturing jobs for example have a substantially greater economic multiplier (see IMPLAN) than service type jobs.... The other issues is how many eligible (working age) people who have dropped out of the workforce denominator. Simply look at total number working, and IRS tax receipts per capita and you can see what a disaster the last several years have been. If wages were fine relative to inflation you would not see so much of the population bitching so loudly about prices...you would also not see so many states struggling with budgets and increasing taxes. No argument from me on the importance of considering real wages and the quality of jobs, labor force participation, and more nuanced metrics. Real wages are flat but manufacturing jobs are above their pre-pandemic peak under Biden. www.factcheck.org/2024/09/trump-vs-harris-on-u-s-manufacturing/Labor force participation peaked under Trump at 63.3%, and during the pandemic it fell off a cliff and bottomed at 60.2%. Under Biden it has recovered the 62.6% level. We are not at pre-pandemic levels but things definitely moved in the right direction. I do expect employment to cool off in the next 12-18 months but that's going to happen regardless of who is elected pres. Normal people look at this and say "we've come a long way, and still have some work to do. Let's give ourselves some grace." Amen. |
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petep
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Post by petep on Nov 3, 2024 3:36:47 GMT
You do understand the point. If the govt shuts everything down and 100 people lose jobs. And then then open things back up and 100 people go back to work and 1 new job is added, you cannot claim you added 101 jobs. You added 1 job. Unless you seem to be arguing that when Kamala brags about adding 800,000 jobs, it almost seems the shutdown was intentional so they could count people coming back to work. Oh I get the game you're playing I just think it's silly. In all sincerity, it’s not a game. Think of the economic impact. IF they were the same jobs at the same wage, the impact on the economy - on output - is one new job relative to where we were. It’s not 101 new jobs. The problem is that we lost many jobs in sectors with high economic multipliers. And replaced them with low multiplier jobs. That is why we are seeing what we see with irs per capita tax receipts. |
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Post by RinsePrius on Nov 3, 2024 3:43:34 GMT
Oh I get the game you're playing I just think it's silly. In all sincerity, it’s not a game. Think of the economic impact. IF they were the same jobs at the same wage, the impact on the economy - on output - is one new job relative to where we were. It’s not 101 new jobs. The problem is that we lost many jobs in sectors with high economic multipliers. And replaced them with low multiplier jobs. That is why we are seeing what we see with irs per capita tax receipts. We don't get to pause history pre-covid and pretend that is the baseline to measure from. You measure from the depth of the crisis. You admit that the manufacturing jobs came back and we are above pre-pandemic levels. So not *all* high incomes jobs were replaced with low. |
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bama beau
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Post by bama beau on Nov 3, 2024 3:44:27 GMT
And read up. Those were people going back to work. The net gain is generally agreed to be around 135k. Dismal. You don't get to pretend covid didn't happen. The #'s are what they are. trumP's reaction to COVID was as bad as COVID itself. |
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