Odysseus
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Trump = Disaster
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Post by Odysseus on Sept 17, 2024 18:11:11 GMT
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 17, 2024 18:34:25 GMT
The headline is mainly about the Iowa poll, but it fails to put it in context. Here's the quote regarding the Iowa poll:
Instead of comparing polls from the same time period, it looks at polls "days" before the election: However, if you go and look at the Iowa polling straight from the horse's mouth on September 22, 2020: So roughly the same time period in 2020, Trump was tied with Biden. Now, he has a 4 point lead on Harris in the state. And that's cause for concern?
Also, the polling average has Harris 1.2 over Trump in Wisconsin. He lost the state in 2020; won it by a slim margin in 2016.
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Post by thecitizen on Sept 17, 2024 18:54:49 GMT
The headline is mainly about the Iowa poll, but it fails to put it in context. Here's the quote regarding the Iowa poll:
Instead of comparing polls from the same time period, it looks at polls "days" before the election: However, if you go and look at the Iowa polling straight from the horse's mouth on September 22, 2020: So roughly the same time period in 2020, Trump was tied with Biden. Now, he has a 4 point lead on Harris in the state. And that's cause for concern?
Also, the polling average has Harris 1.2 over Trump in Wisconsin. He lost the state in 2020; won it by a slim margin in 2016.
Yeah, polls don’t matter, right Demos😉 |
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 17, 2024 19:36:33 GMT
Yeah, polls don’t matter, right Demos😉 State polls matter, because we don't have a national popular vote. Trends matter. One snapshot in time is just that.
Also, taking a poll from one point in time and comparing them to other points in time is bad journalism. She's performing worse than Biden was in September 2020 in Iowa, but that's supposed to be a good sign for her?
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freonbale
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Post by freonbale on Sept 17, 2024 23:35:04 GMT
I still don't believe polls. Freon |
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Odysseus
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Trump = Disaster
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Post by Odysseus on Sept 17, 2024 23:37:26 GMT
I still don't believe polls. Freon
Why?
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freonbale
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Post by freonbale on Sept 17, 2024 23:40:28 GMT
I still don't believe polls. Freon
Why?
Because they do not measure an accurate demographic. They ignore the online community, and they cannot factor those who will say one thing, but vote another way. Freon |
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Odysseus
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Trump = Disaster
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Post by Odysseus on Sept 18, 2024 0:19:16 GMT
Oh, OK.
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Post by thecitizen on Sept 18, 2024 1:34:17 GMT
Yeah, polls don’t matter, right Demos😉 State polls matter, because we don't have a national popular vote. Trends matter. One snapshot in time is just that.
Also, taking a poll from one point in time and comparing them to other points in time is bad journalism. She's performing worse than Biden was in September 2020 in Iowa, but that's supposed to be a good sign for her?
So ABC polls don’t matter, right? |
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Post by archie on Sept 18, 2024 13:42:01 GMT
State polls matter, because we don't have a national popular vote. Trends matter. One snapshot in time is just that.
Also, taking a poll from one point in time and comparing them to other points in time is bad journalism. She's performing worse than Biden was in September 2020 in Iowa, but that's supposed to be a good sign for her?
So ABC polls don’t matter, right? ABC is very left leaning. I think polls count a lot on where they are taken. And also are all people available. Workers non workers and all races. Here in Florida it seems to me that Trump is very popular. Many flags and stickers on a lot of vehicles. Trump, MAGA and others. ABC has two good things on it that I watch all the time. Jeopardy, and wheel of fortune. |
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Post by archie on Sept 18, 2024 13:42:41 GMT
And bye for now.
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 18, 2024 15:34:11 GMT
So ABC polls don’t matter, right? What are you talking bout?
Are you talking about the Swiftie poll in the other thread? As a measure of her influence, there's nothing wrong with that poll.
Just don't use it to make any determinations about the election outcome, because national polls - particularly national polls of registered voters - are irrelevant.
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Post by thecitizen on Sept 18, 2024 15:56:46 GMT
So ABC polls don’t matter, right? What are you talking bout?
Are you talking about the Swiftie poll in the other thread? As a measure of her influence, there's nothing wrong with that poll.
Just don't use it to make any determinations about the election outcome, because national polls - particularly national polls of registered voters - are irrelevant.
So only polls you like are relevant. Got it😉 |
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 18, 2024 16:02:08 GMT
So only polls you like are relevant. Got it😉 I know you think you're making a point, but you're really not. |
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Post by thecitizen on Sept 18, 2024 16:12:14 GMT
So only polls you like are relevant. Got it😉 I know you think you're making a point, but you're really not. Sure. And neither are you |
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 18, 2024 16:20:43 GMT
Sure. And neither are you My point is quite clear. You are just dull. |
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Post by thecitizen on Sept 18, 2024 16:26:27 GMT
Sure. And neither are you My point is quite clear. You are just dull. You point is that you are trying to convince yourself the VP Harris ain’t gonna win because you don’t want her to so you come up with all of the reasons why the polls are either good or bad. You have contradicted yourself in two threads. Your are hilarious |
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 18, 2024 16:44:51 GMT
You point is that you are trying to convince yourself the VP Harris ain’t gonna win because you don’t want her to so you come up with all of the reasons why the polls are either good or bad. You have contradicted yourself in two threads. Your are hilarious You clearly haven't actually read anything I've written about the polls, because that wasn't the point. I've already said this race is going to be close. Many of the battleground states are statistically tied. They could go either way.
I was pointing out bad journalism. You shouldn't compare a September poll to a poll in late October. If you're comparing snapshots in time, you should compare similar time periods.
If you look at the Register poll in September 2020, Biden and Trump were tied, then in October, Trump was up 7pts and won by ~8. In September 2024, Harris is 4 points down.
Comparing September 2024 to October 2020 is bad analysis. But to make his case that this new poll is good for Harris, the author had to make that comparison, because the September 2020 comparison shows she is doing worse than Biden was.
If I wanted to make a case if Harris is going to win or not, I would look at the battleground states (which Iowa is not), and I would compare her performance to Biden's and/or Clinton's at similar time periods. What I wouldn't do is look at a September Iowa poll and compare it to an October poll 4 years ago, then try to apply that to other Midwestern states.
But I don't care enough to do any of that, because I don't care which of them wins. Instead, I'm trying to help you and others posting this stuff become better consumers of information, specifically polls (probably a futile effort).
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Post by thecitizen on Sept 18, 2024 19:42:04 GMT
You point is that you are trying to convince yourself the VP Harris ain’t gonna win because you don’t want her to so you come up with all of the reasons why the polls are either good or bad. You have contradicted yourself in two threads. Your are hilarious You clearly haven't actually read anything I've written about the polls, because that wasn't the point. I've already said this race is going to be close. Many of the battleground states are statistically tied. They could go either way.
I was pointing out bad journalism. You shouldn't compare a September poll to a poll in late October. If you're comparing snapshots in time, you should compare similar time periods.
If you look at the Register poll in September 2020, Biden and Trump were tied, then in October, Trump was up 7pts and won by ~8. In September 2024, Harris is 4 points down.
Comparing September 2024 to October 2020 is bad analysis. But to make his case that this new poll is good for Harris, the author had to make that comparison, because the September 2020 comparison shows she is doing worse than Biden was.
If I wanted to make a case if Harris is going to win or not, I would look at the battleground states (which Iowa is not), and I would compare her performance to Biden's and/or Clinton's at similar time periods. What I wouldn't do is look at a September Iowa poll and compare it to an October poll 4 years ago, then try to apply that to other Midwestern states.
But I don't care enough to do any of that, because I don't care which of them wins. Instead, I'm trying to help you and others posting this stuff become better consumers of information, specifically polls (probably a futile effort).
That's your opinion which means nothing as polls mean nothing |
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demos
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Post by demos on Sept 18, 2024 19:55:31 GMT
That's your opinion which means nothing as polls mean nothing What?
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