The US, Iran and the Middle East

After Ship Seizures, US Moves to Increase Patrols Off Iran

The U.S. military is about to get busier in and around the Strait of Hormuz as officials attempt to send Tehran a signal to behave after Iranian forces seized two oil tankers. “We're going to increase the patrols in the neighborhood to ensure that we are seen, and that Iran clearly gets the message that we will not stand for this type of aggressive behavior,” Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Monday...

The Biden administration has been negotiating quietly with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and free imprisoned Americans, according to officials from three countries, in part of a larger U.S. effort to ease tensions and reduce the risk of a military confrontation with the Islamic Republic. The U.S. goal is to reach an informal, unwritten agreement, which some Iranian officials are calling a “political cease-fire.” It would aim to prevent a further escalation in a long-hostile relationship that has grown even more fraught as Iran builds up a stockpile of highly enriched uranium close to bomb-grade purity, supplies Russia with drones for use in Ukraine and brutally cracks down on domestic political protests...

Iran would agree under a new pact — which two Israeli officials called “imminent” — not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity. That is close to but short of the 90 percent purity needed to fashion a nuclear weapon, a level that the United States has warned would force a severe response...

Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s leadership has single-mindedly attempted to dominate the Middle East and drive the United States and Israel out. Throughout, Tehran has relied overwhelmingly on the proverbial stick to do so: trying to subvert the Arab states by blackmail or insurgency while waging a relentless terrorist campaign against the United States and Israel. While those goals haven’t changed, the Iranians appear to have altered their grand strategy in a fundamental way. We can never be certain because Iranian decision-making is always opaque, but Iran suddenly seems to have discovered that carrots can be useful tools of foreign policy as well. Almost everywhere you look, Tehran is now offering positive inducements to cooperation and mostly throttling back on its strong-arm tactics. The question now facing the United States is how to adjust its own policy in return...

<excerpt> The two U.S. officials said the Biden administration will help Israel defend itself in any scenario with Hezbollah, including everything from replenishing Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system to providing intelligence. If Israel comes under severe duress — with Hezbollah raining rockets and missiles on its major cities, for instance — the U.S. may move toward more direct military support, the officials said. </excerpt>

Iraq wants troops from a U.S.-led military coalition to begin withdrawing in September and to formally end the coalition's work by September 2025, four Iraqi sources said, with some U.S. forces likely to remain in a newly negotiated advisory capacity... While the coalition's mission is to advise and assist Iraqi forces in the fight against the Islamic State, Western officials say the U.S. and its allies also see its presence in Iraq as a check on Iranian influence.