Russia-Ukraine Negotiations

Ukraine could join ranks of ‘frozen’ conflicts, U.S. officials say

U.S. officials are planning for the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war will turn into a frozen conflict that lasts many years — perhaps decades — and joins the ranks of similar lengthy face-offs in the Korean peninsula, South Asia and beyond. The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House...

Germany and Hungary quarreled Monday during a foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels over the role a controversial Hungarian bank is playing in Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to four diplomats familiar with the exchange. The bank, OTP, has become a focal point for officials in recent days as Hungary is refusing to approve more EU military aid for Ukraine until Kyiv removes the company from a “war sponsors” list it maintains. Diplomats also say the dispute is delaying new Russia sanctions...

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is often out of step with his Western allies regarding the Ukraine war, has said Kyiv’s troops are unlikely to win the war against Russia. Speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha on Tuesday, he said the conflict which started 15 months ago can only be resolved by diplomacy...

Poland is keeping a critical eye on attempts to broker a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow as the deadly war in Ukraine continues to rage and as questions remain over Russia’s next move. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy first laid out parameters for a "peace formula" last October and urged G-7 leaders at a summit in Japan on Sunday to help coordinate diplomatic steps, along with the ongoing military assistance, to help bring about an end to the war...

Malaysia's former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said that countries of the so-called Global South will not throw their weight behind Russia or Ukraine in the ongoing war, despite the Group of Seven's recent show of support for Kyiv. Mahathir was speaking Friday at Nikkei's Future of Asia forum. The Global South including "Brazil, India and Indonesia, these people do not want war," he said. "They will not be supportive of the war between Russia and Ukraine"...

As the United States and Western allies seek to isolate Russia over its ongoing war in Ukraine, a senior Moscow diplomat tells Newsweek he is leading the charge to strengthen partnerships across Africa. Washington has sought to expand its own influence across the continent, but a series of high-level interactions past and upcoming appear to show the Kremlin's campaign is gaining ground. Oleg Ozerov, Russian ambassador-at-large and head of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum, argues this is a reflection of vast changes in the international order...

Ukraine is upping its campaign to get a firm promise of NATO membership eventually, working to sway wary allies before a key meeting this week. The foreign ministers of NATO member countries will gather for an informal meeting in Oslo on Wednesday and Thursday, where they are set to debate Kyiv’s request to join the defense alliance...

When NATO leaders meet for their annual summit in July, Estonia will ask them to consider a “roadmap” for Ukraine to join the alliance, Estonia’s minister of defense said Monday.  “What we have to push in Vilnius is that there has to be a clear understanding [of] what are the next steps for Ukraine,” Hanno Pevkur said at the annual GLOBSEC conference here...

It may not be possible to send Vladimir Putin to face war crime charges at The Hague if he is the only person with whom the west has to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, Emmanuel Macron has said. In a wide-ranging speech, the French president also set out plans for a fast enlargement of the EU, a reconciliation between the east and west of Europe and a clear path to Ukraine’s Nato membership...

Ukraine and its allies are planning a summit of global leaders that would exclude Russia, aimed at garnering support for Kyiv’s terms for ending the war, according to a senior Ukrainian presidential adviser and European diplomats. Plans for a gathering, while preliminary, have strong support from European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron who are lobbying for participation by countries that have sided with Russia or declined to take a position on the war...

The EU executive is set to announce the extension until mid-September of temporary import curbs on Ukrainian grain and oilseeds that were due to expire Monday, three EU diplomats said on Monday.  “The Commission has informed Member States of their proposal to that effect this morning,” one of the diplomats said. “Since the Commission has the authority to do so, effectively this will be in place from tomorrow”...

“China said they were going to take Hong Kong, they did it. Russia said they were going to invade Ukraine, we watched that happen. China says Taiwan’s next, we better believe them. Russia said Poland and the Baltics are next, if that happens, we are looking at a world war. This is about preventing war,” she continued. “Everybody wants to know well how does this war end? It would end in a day if Russia pulls out. If Ukraine pulled out, then we’re all looking at a world war.”

Ukraine can expect new security guarantees from NATO nations at the military alliance's upcoming summit, but it should not count on receiving a formal invitation for membership during the gathering in Lithuania. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pushing NATO member nations to commit to accepting Ukraine into the alliance when the war is over to help deter future Russian attacks on the country. He said in an interview this month that he sees "no point" in attending the Vilnius summit without "a signal" or acknowledgement that Ukraine will be admitted...

Ukraine will not be offered a timeline with specific dates by which it can join Nato at its summit in Vilnius next month but instead may be offered a shorter route when an offer of membership is made. The proposal, reflecting a gathering consensus of key partners in the western defence alliance, will come as a disappointment to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Nato members, but outside formal Nato structures, will also offer post-conflict security guarantees to Ukraine, which are likely to take the shape of broad commitments to protect Ukraine from assaults by Russia. They are also expected to continue to provide ammunition and to help the Ukrainian armed forces become more convergent with Nato. But the commitments are likely to take a broad high level form rather than be specific offers of weaponry...

Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian dictator, has said that the task of the aggressor country on the so-called"demilitarisation" of Ukraine has allegedly been largely fulfilled... "Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarised at the time of the beginning of its [special military operation, as the Russian Federation calls the war against Ukraine – ed.]. And, as [Russian President Vladimir] Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarise Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed..."

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday gave African leaders seeking to mediate in the war in Ukraine a list of reasons why he believed many of their proposals were misguided, pouring cold water on a plan already largely dismissed by Kyiv. The African leaders were seeking agreement on a series of "confidence building measures", even as Kyiv last week began a counteroffensive to push back Russian forces from the swathes of southern and eastern Ukraine that they occupy...

The U.K. would be “very supportive” of a fast-tracked accession to NATO for Ukraine, the British foreign secretary said. Speaking at a press conference at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London, James Cleverly said Britain would support proposals to allow Kyiv to skip a so-called Membership Action Plan (MAP) in order to join NATO...

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Thursday that next month’s NATO summit should focus on strengthening Ukraine’s military power instead of opening a process for the country to join the transatlantic alliance. In a speech to lawmakers in the Bundestag, Scholz urged fellow NATO leaders to look “soberly” at Ukraine’s bid to join the alliance and argued that Kyiv itself had said “that joining NATO is out of the question” as long as Russia’s war against the country continues to rage on...

The informal meeting will be attended by US security officials and country representatives later this week. Senior US officials will meet with representatives of several countries that have not yet condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine later this week in Denmark.  The White House's national security advisor Jake Sullivan will meet with officials from India, Brazil, and South Africa – countries that have refused to follow Western sanctions against Russia...