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Post by Fiddler on Jul 13, 2020 19:50:49 GMT
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States? Franklin VeauxThere are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 20:03:29 GMT
Well said. Particularly the part about how the virus will ravage the economy regardless.
That's the subtle point that is getting lost in the debate. Yes, shutdowns and social distancing are costly. But so is doing nothing. There is no option C where we get to avoid economic devastation.
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 13, 2020 20:21:06 GMT
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States? Franklin VeauxThere are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19. What is the “law of large numbers” and how does it apply here? Also, who the fuck thinks everybody will get the disease? Or if everybody gets the disease, that means that 62.4 million will be hospitalized? What numbers are we using right now? Case Hospitalization Rate our Infection Hospitalization Rate? Because we don’t know how many infections there are. This is not “well said”. |
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petep
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Post by petep on Jul 13, 2020 20:22:20 GMT
The death rate per 100,000 people has been tracked closely for many years... www.statista.com/statistics/189670/death-rates-for-all-causes-in-the-us-since-1950/We know, pretty close, what the deaths in 2020 should be, as projections did not account for covid, and we are seeing how we are trending to that number with covid...Other things equal, if we state 500,000 died from covid, we would expect that number to be added to the projected total...so instead of approx 2.5 million deaths we will see 3.0 million dead... there are more metrics to consider beyond deaths, and the economy and working taxpayers, which funds everything, must be a metric. no one would doubt that if the gov't threatened to shoot anyone who left their homes since jan, we would, under that threat, have seen much lower infections/deaths...is that the right metric and solution...of course not... at some point, I'm going to err to tell all the data and risk, and let them decide...and if you are very scared or at risk, stay at home and don't interact with anyone...your choice... |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 20:28:29 GMT
Consider the question OP is responding to: "How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?"
I believe the mortality rate will be much less than 1%. But if it was that high, factoring in all the people who don't die and all their issues, I don't see how the economy is not devastated.
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petep
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Post by petep on Jul 13, 2020 20:32:59 GMT
I guess it depends who is dying as well...the USC and los angeles county studies, very comprehensive, show a much much lower mortality rate due to so many who are asymptomatic...
but 1% dying who are predisposed and over 80 years old is significantly different than 1% dying who are 30 years old with another 40 years earning potential...the economics matter greatly, and it depends, coldly, on who is dying...
the solutions should match the problem...
and I'd argue to date they have not.
I've been very vocal too, in that trump is making a huge mistake taling about defeating the invisible enemy...maybe its just a new disease we have to live with and adapt to...like the flu
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Post by Fiddler on Jul 13, 2020 20:33:23 GMT
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States? Franklin VeauxThere are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19. What is the “law of large numbers” and how does it apply here? Also, who the fuck thinks everybody will get the disease? Or if everybody gets the disease, that means that 62.4 million will be hospitalized? What numbers are we using right now? Case Hospitalization Rate our Infection Hospitalization Rate? Because we don’t know how many infections there are. This is not “well said”. Franklin Veaux Edited to add: Wow, this answer has really blown up. Many people are asking about the sources, so here’s the basic rundown: This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.) The statistics I used in this answer were compiled from a number of different sources. I spent quite a bit of time writing the answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have my search history in front of me, so I’ll attempt to re-compile them. Some of the sources include: What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19 Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients. Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems. What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19 “Some of the data that we’re getting now from the China studies, one study that was just published in JAMA Neurology showed that 36.4 percent of patients had neurologic issues,” said Dr. Sheri Dewan , neurosurgeon at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield, Illinois. “One of the review articles that came out at the end of February discussed the possibility of virus traveling into the olfactory neurons, through the olfactory bulb, and into the brain.” Lifelong Lung Damage: A Serious COVID-19 Complication ? “Holes in the lung likely refers to an entity that has been dubbed ‘post-COVID fibrosis,’ otherwise known as post-ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] fibrosis,” said Dr. Lori Shah , transplant pulmonologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center. ARDS occurs when fluid builds up in tiny air sacs in the lungs called alveoli. This reduces oxygen in the bloodstream and deprives the organs of oxygen which can lead to organ failure. Post-COVID fibrosis, according to Shah, is defined as lung damage that’s irreversible and can result in severe functional limitations from patients, such as cough, shortness of breath, and need for oxygen. […] According to The Lancet, in a piece titled, “Pulmonary fibrosis secondary to COVID-19: A call to arms? ,” the first series of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China showed that 26 percent required intensive care and 61 percent of that subset developed ARDS. What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19 Physicians report that patients hospitalized for Covid-19 are experiencing high rates of blood clots that can cause strokes, heart attacks, lung blockages, and other complications, Parshley reports. For instance, physicians are seeing an uptick in strokes among young patients with Covid-19. The blood clots also can travel to other organs, leading to ongoing health problems. For instance, pulmonary embolisms, which occur when the clots block circulation to the lungs, can cause ongoing "functional limitations," like fatigue, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and discomfort when performing physical activity, Parshley reports. Similarly, blood clots in the kidneys can cause renal failure, which can cause life-long complications. Heart damage Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients. Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems. The numbers in this answer were made from extrapolations about percentages of COVID-19 long-term effects reported in a range of studies on Google Scholar, assuming a hypothetical 100% US infection rate and a 1% fatality rate. Of course, in reality, a high infection rate would cause the mortality and comorbidity rates to skyrocket, so if anything, these numbers are conservative. |
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petep
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Post by petep on Jul 13, 2020 20:37:02 GMT
fids, can you somehow relate this to what should be done as it relates to the economy
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Post by MojoJojo on Jul 13, 2020 20:37:37 GMT
Looks like it's finally reaching rural Appalachia...
No surprise, that county is where WVU is located.
Gov. Jim Justice is a BIG supporter of Trump and even he is treating this virus seriously. We've been reopening for weeks and masks were recommended. Now there're new restrictions and masks have been mandated. I went into Kroger on Thursday last week, 30% mask use. Went in today and it was 99%. It's a real shame we have to mandate things like this when informed consent would be so much better. Now we'll end up with the mask Karens going off in the store. LOL!
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 13, 2020 20:48:17 GMT
What is the “law of large numbers” and how does it apply here? Also, who the fuck thinks everybody will get the disease? Or if everybody gets the disease, that means that 62.4 million will be hospitalized? What numbers are we using right now? Case Hospitalization Rate our Infection Hospitalization Rate? Because we don’t know how many infections there are. This is not “well said”. Franklin Veaux Edited to add: Wow, this answer has really blown up. Many people are asking about the sources, so here’s the basic rundown: This model assumes that the question’s hypothetical is correct and the fatality rate is 1%. It also assumes for the sake of argument 100% infection. (In reality, of course, neither of these is a perfect match to reality. The infection rate will never hit 100%, but the fatality rate in a widespread infection is likely to be greater than 1%, because health care services will be overwhelmed.) The statistics I used in this answer were compiled from a number of different sources. I spent quite a bit of time writing the answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have my search history in front of me, so I’ll attempt to re-compile them. Some of the sources include: What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19 Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients. Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems. What We Know About the Long-Term Effects of COVID-19 “Some of the data that we’re getting now from the China studies, one study that was just published in JAMA Neurology showed that 36.4 percent of patients had neurologic issues,” said Dr. Sheri Dewan , neurosurgeon at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield, Illinois. “One of the review articles that came out at the end of February discussed the possibility of virus traveling into the olfactory neurons, through the olfactory bulb, and into the brain.” Lifelong Lung Damage: A Serious COVID-19 Complication ? “Holes in the lung likely refers to an entity that has been dubbed ‘post-COVID fibrosis,’ otherwise known as post-ARDS [acute respiratory distress syndrome] fibrosis,” said Dr. Lori Shah , transplant pulmonologist at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center. ARDS occurs when fluid builds up in tiny air sacs in the lungs called alveoli. This reduces oxygen in the bloodstream and deprives the organs of oxygen which can lead to organ failure. Post-COVID fibrosis, according to Shah, is defined as lung damage that’s irreversible and can result in severe functional limitations from patients, such as cough, shortness of breath, and need for oxygen. […] According to The Lancet, in a piece titled, “Pulmonary fibrosis secondary to COVID-19: A call to arms? ,” the first series of hospitalized patients in Wuhan, China showed that 26 percent required intensive care and 61 percent of that subset developed ARDS. What we know (so far) about the long-term health effects of Covid-19 Physicians report that patients hospitalized for Covid-19 are experiencing high rates of blood clots that can cause strokes, heart attacks, lung blockages, and other complications, Parshley reports. For instance, physicians are seeing an uptick in strokes among young patients with Covid-19. The blood clots also can travel to other organs, leading to ongoing health problems. For instance, pulmonary embolisms, which occur when the clots block circulation to the lungs, can cause ongoing "functional limitations," like fatigue, shortness of breath, heart palpitations, and discomfort when performing physical activity, Parshley reports. Similarly, blood clots in the kidneys can cause renal failure, which can cause life-long complications. Heart damage Physicians have also reported an increase in inflammation of and damage to the heart muscle in Covid-19 patients. One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage. Another study from Wuhan published in January found 12% of Covid-19 patients showed signs of cardiovascular damage. Other studies have since found evidence of myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle that can cause scarring, and heart failure in Covid-19 patients. Now, physicians warn that Covid-19 survivors may experience long-lasting cardiac damage and cardiovascular problems, which could increase their risk for heart attack and stroke. Doctors also warn Covid-19 could worsen existing heart problems. The numbers in this answer were made from extrapolations about percentages of COVID-19 long-term effects reported in a range of studies on Google Scholar, assuming a hypothetical 100% US infection rate and a 1% fatality rate. Of course, in reality, a high infection rate would cause the mortality and comorbidity rates to skyrocket, so if anything, these numbers are conservative. Ah. Franklin Veaux. The esteemed. Looking him up, I’m sorry to have doubted his Science. I feel like a real Science Denier at this point. |
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Post by atreyu on Jul 13, 2020 21:15:12 GMT
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States? Franklin VeauxThere are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
They get it -- they just don't care.
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 13, 2020 21:16:25 GMT
How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States? Franklin VeauxThere are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine. The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead. Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once. The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right? What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies: 19 more require hospitalization. 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. 10 will have permanent lung damage. 3 will have strokes. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination. 2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function. So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: 3,282,000 people dead. 62,358,000 hospitalized. 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. 9,846,000 people with strokes. 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function. That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.
They get it -- they just don't care.
Since nobody else wants to, can you explain how the law of large numbers applies here? |
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Post by atreyu on Jul 13, 2020 21:28:20 GMT
They get it -- they just don't care.
Since nobody else wants to, can you explain how the law of large numbers applies here?
No, not in this case.
I'd say people misunderstanding attributes of viruses in this case do not understand exponential growth, which is understandable as it's hard to visualize. By the time your average person thinks it's time to do something about it, it's waaaay too late.
Fiddler's point still stands and that is there's much more at play than just a mortality number. The more we learn about long term consequences of the virus, the worse it gets.
I know the conservative answer is just let them die, but we have to be realistic and think about safety nets for those that are going to become permanently impaired.
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Post by atreyu on Jul 13, 2020 21:30:16 GMT
On second thought I think maybe the law of large numbers apply to the fact we do not yet know what the mortality rate is. We haven't remotely converged on a number. That makes the most sense given the context.
EDIT: Yep, I'm more convinced after reading the article a third time. 1% is very conservative, the point is we don't know how high it may go, nor how immediate the deaths will be.
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Post by rabbitreborn on Jul 13, 2020 21:44:12 GMT
On second thought I think maybe the law of large numbers apply to the fact we do not yet know what the mortality rate is. We haven't remotely converged on a number. That makes the most sense given the context.
EDIT: Yep, I'm more convinced after reading the article a third time. 1% is very conservative, the point is we don't know how high it may go, nor how immediate the deaths will be.
1% is “very conservative”, and yet the CDC is currently using 0.65% as their best estimate. www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#table-1 |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 21:57:51 GMT
When you can't find an "expert" to make your case for you ... and turn to a "Professional Writer" and "Sex Educator" learning valuable sex dungeon furniture construction skills.
I mean seriously.
But I do love how everyone is just acting like that 1% he's speculating about would affect all age cohorts equally. That's precious. Almost as precious as that latex cat suit he's so proud he made.
Queshank
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Post by atreyu on Jul 13, 2020 22:02:23 GMT
When you can't find an "expert" to make your case for you ... and turn to a "Professional Writer" and "Sex Educator" learning valuable sex dungeon furniture construction skills. I mean seriously. But I do love how everyone is just acting like that 1% he's speculating about would affect all age cohorts equally. That's precious. Almost as precious as that latex cat suit he's so proud he made. Queshank
So what's the implication, some age ranges are more disposable than others?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 22:04:41 GMT
The irony is as much as Cheetohead screams we have to open schools and the economy for his own political benefit, the trajectory we appear to be on is going to totally screw us and him going into the election season.
You can't bully a virus and ignore science.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 22:06:00 GMT
I think if I want to learn how to use a leather flogging whip in each hand ...at the same time... I'll turn to Franklin Veaux. (Altho it did take him til he was 37 so .... maybe he wouldn't be the best source for that either.)
When it comes to drawing conclusions about metaresearch .. I think I'll stick with experts like Dr. John Ioannidis.
Queshank
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 22:06:48 GMT
When you can't find an "expert" to make your case for you ... and turn to a "Professional Writer" and "Sex Educator" learning valuable sex dungeon furniture construction skills. I mean seriously. But I do love how everyone is just acting like that 1% he's speculating about would affect all age cohorts equally. That's precious. Almost as precious as that latex cat suit he's so proud he made. Queshank
So what's the implication, some age ranges are more disposable than others?
No. That different age ranges have a different impact on the economy. Duh? I thought you were all about that science stuff? Why do we have to keep explaining the most elementary things to you? Queshank |
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