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Post by rabbitreborn on May 29, 2024 8:32:01 GMT
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Post by queshank on May 29, 2024 11:51:31 GMT
Bump.
I find it fascinating how unable to understand simple concepts people are because of the nonstop blaring of background noise and chatter and distractions and strawmen.
bama. Can you expand on that? I'm supposedly the person who believes what you said and I have no idea wtf you're talking about. Perhaps if you clarify?
Queshank
What would be your analysis of this post? Would you not expect this from the NYT?
No. I've never suggested the media deliberately lies to people.
And my reaction would be exactly what it was. Laughing at rabbit mocking leftists. Because if you don't realize half his posts are quoting leftists and flipping a couple words ... you ain't paying much attention.
Queshank
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freonbale
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 13:46:27 GMT
Those seem to agree with my statement. Don't trust the polls. Freon |
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Post by rabbitreborn on May 29, 2024 14:18:08 GMT
Those seem to agree with my statement. Don't trust the polls. Freon Do they? Let’s check: “You remember the polls prior to the 2020 election? They said Donald was going to win as well.” -freon Looks like the polls were biased the exact opposite way from what you said. I get that you want to change what you said now, but it’s clear you were just horribly wrong again. |
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demos
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Post by demos on May 29, 2024 14:22:42 GMT
You remember the polls prior to the 2020 election? They said Donald was going to win as well. What are you talking about?
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 14:23:42 GMT
Those seem to agree with my statement. Don't trust the polls. Freon Do they? Let’s check: “You remember the polls prior to the 2020 election? They said Donald was going to win as well.” -freon Looks like the polls were biased the exact opposite way from what you said. I get that you want to change what you said now, but it’s clear you were just horribly wrong again. It really depends on the polls. My message is to not trust ANY of them. Regardless of who they favor. Polls stopped being useful nearly a decade ago. Freon |
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 14:27:33 GMT
You remember the polls prior to the 2020 election? They said Donald was going to win as well. What are you talking about?
Look at the dates, Demos. Look how close to the election they are. Are we that close right now? No? Then the polls cannot be trusted at this time. As we get closer, my tune will change. Freon |
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Post by demos on May 29, 2024 14:31:45 GMT
Look at the dates, Demos. Look how close to the election they are. Are we that close right now? No? Then the polls cannot be trusted at this time. As we get closer, my tune will change. Freon Scroll down dude; look at the graph - that goes back to September 2019.
Now scroll down a little further, the table goes back to March 2020.
But the point is, pretty much every poll had Biden winning, not Trump (only 5 polls had him ahead from March to November, including 2 from Rasmussen and 2 from Emerson). So, the polls weren't saying Trump was going to win.
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 14:56:43 GMT
Look at the dates, Demos. Look how close to the election they are. Are we that close right now? No? Then the polls cannot be trusted at this time. As we get closer, my tune will change. Freon Scroll down dude; look at the graph - that goes back to September 2019.
Now scroll down a little further, the table goes back to March 2020.
But the point is, pretty much every poll had Biden winning, not Trump (only 5 polls had him ahead from March to November, including 2 from Rasmussen and 2 from Emerson). So, the polls weren't saying Trump was going to win.
And yet if you look back on this forum, the far righties were all claiming, just like now, that the polls they are exposed to, all point to Donald's victory. And if you go back to 2016, THOSE polls indicated a Donald loss. How do you reconcile that? Freon |
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Post by demos on May 29, 2024 15:11:37 GMT
And yet if you look back on this forum, the far righties were all claiming, just like now, that the polls they are exposed to, all point to Donald's victory. And if you go back to 2016, THOSE polls indicated a Donald loss. How do you reconcile that? Freon The first is confirmation bias. The second is addressed in Rabbit's link:
Also, the 2016 national polls were less consistent about a Trump loss, and he actually overtook Clinton in July 2016 in the polling average.
I'll tell you the same thing I tell everyone on these boards about polls:
1) A poll is a snapshot in time; pay attention to trends, not individual polls.
2) Look for polls of likely voters; these are usually more accurate. There are sites that grade the accuracy of polling outlets.
3) In the Presidential election, pay attention to polls in the swing states. For example, look at the Battleground State polling in 2016. Trump was ahead in Arizona; won it. Florida; won. Georgia; won. Iowa; won. North Carolina; won. Ohio; won. Wisconsin; won. The only state where he had a lead in the poll average and lost was Nevada ( US Election Atlas). So, the national polls were less accurate, but the state polling seems to have performed better.
Overall, just be a good, intelligent consumer of information.
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freonbale
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 15:17:23 GMT
And yet if you look back on this forum, the far righties were all claiming, just like now, that the polls they are exposed to, all point to Donald's victory. And if you go back to 2016, THOSE polls indicated a Donald loss. How do you reconcile that? Freon The first is confirmation bias. The second is addressed in Rabbit's link:
Also, the 2016 national polls were less consistent about a Trump loss, and he actually overtook Clinton in July 2016 in the polling average.
I'll tell you the same thing I tell everyone on these boards about polls:
1) A poll is a snapshot in time; pay attention to trends, not individual polls.
2) Look for polls of likely voters; these are usually more accurate. There are sites that grade the accuracy of polling outlets.
3) In the Presidential election, pay attention to polls in the swing states. For example, look at the Battleground State polling in 2016. Trump was ahead in Arizona; won it. Florida; won. Georgia; won. Iowa; won. North Carolina; won. Ohio; won. Wisconsin; won. The only state where he had a lead in the poll average and lost was Nevada ( US Election Atlas). So, the national polls were less accurate, but the state polling seems to have performed better.
Overall, just be a good, intelligent consumer of information.
I'll heed your advice, but what do the polls say now, Demos? If you rely on them, and consider them so accurate, who is going to be our next president? Freon |
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Post by demos on May 29, 2024 15:21:39 GMT
I'll heed your advice, but what do the polls say now, Demos? If you rely on them, and consider them so accurate, who is going to be our next president? Freon I haven't looked at the state level polling and done the EC math. And I probably won't. I don't care enough.
But if you want to make a prediction, I would tell you to look at the state level polls and do the electoral college math.
If you want to show me your work, I might agree with it.
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 15:25:15 GMT
I'll heed your advice, but what do the polls say now, Demos? If you rely on them, and consider them so accurate, who is going to be our next president? Freon I haven't looked at the state level polling and done the EC math. And I probably won't. I don't care enough.
But if you want to make a prediction, I would tell you to look at the state level polls and do the electoral college math.
If you want to show me your work, I might agree with it.
You don't care who the next president is? Why is that? Freon |
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 15:29:38 GMT
You remember the polls prior to the 2020 election? They said Donald was going to win as well. What are you talking about?
I love this site. Thank you! Freon |
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Post by demos on May 29, 2024 15:31:08 GMT
You don't care who the next president is? Why is that? Freon Because regardless of which of them it is, the constitutional violations will continue and our foreign policy won't substantially or significantly change.
I'm not going to invest a lot of energy or emotion in this. Maybe if there were better candidates and someone whom I could agree with on several issues, but that's not the case. So, I'll be casting my usual protest vote in the Presidential election and reserve the rest of my focus for down ballot races.
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Post by queshank on May 29, 2024 15:33:38 GMT
This seems relevant to the conversation busting out here.
As for the state polls in 2016, 45 states and the District of Columbia went exactly where they were expected to go. Florida and North Carolina were considered toss-ups, along with Maine's and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional Districts. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were the only real surprises, as polls showed Clinton ahead in each. Put simply, the polls weren’t nearly as far off as many people continue to think they were.
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 15:34:08 GMT
You don't care who the next president is? Why is that? Freon Because regardless of which of them it is, the constitutional violations will continue and our foreign policy won't substantially or significantly change.
I'm not going to invest a lot of energy or emotion in this. Maybe if there were better candidates and someone whom I could agree with on several issues, but that's not the case. So, I'll be casting my usual protest vote in the Presidential election and reserve the rest of my focus for down ballot races.
If Donald wins, I see chaos for the next four years, just like last time. That is worth voting against. And according to that site you linked, all the polls point to Donald winning. So guess we know now, right? Freon |
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Post by rabbitreborn on May 29, 2024 15:39:01 GMT
Do they? Let’s check: “You remember the polls prior to the 2020 election? They said Donald was going to win as well.” -freon Looks like the polls were biased the exact opposite way from what you said. I get that you want to change what you said now, but it’s clear you were just horribly wrong again. It really depends on the polls. My message is to not trust ANY of them. Regardless of who they favor. Polls stopped being useful nearly a decade ago. Freon Sure. That’s your message now. That wasn’t it before. But you’re hard wired never to admit error. You’re dishonest. |
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Post by freonbale on May 29, 2024 15:42:38 GMT
It really depends on the polls. My message is to not trust ANY of them. Regardless of who they favor. Polls stopped being useful nearly a decade ago. Freon Sure. That’s your message now. That wasn’t it before. But you’re hard wired never to admit error. You’re dishonest. My opinions adapt to the evidence available. You see this as a fault, I see it as a feature. Freon |
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Post by demos on May 29, 2024 16:19:35 GMT
If Donald wins, I see chaos for the next four years, just like last time. That is worth voting against. Freon The past 4 years: the border is a complete mess; inflation has been a significant problem; we've got multiple conflicts we're involved in (still), and one has led to protests across the country and especially on college campuses; Congress remains dysfunctional.
Nothing to be particularly enthused about.
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